...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >The uncertainty associated with estimating future groundwater recharge: A summary of recent research and an example from a small unconfined aquifer in a northern humid-continental climate
【24h】

The uncertainty associated with estimating future groundwater recharge: A summary of recent research and an example from a small unconfined aquifer in a northern humid-continental climate

机译：与估算未来地下水补给量相关的不确定性：最新研究的总结以及北部潮湿大陆气候中一个小型无限制含水层的例子

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Global climate models (GCMs) project significant changes to regional and globally-averaged precipitation and air temperature, and these changes will likely have an associated impact on groundwater recharge. A common approach in recent climate change-impact studies is to employ multiple downscaled climate change scenarios to drive a hydrological model and project an envelope of recharge possibilities. However, each step in this process introduces variability into the hydrological results, which translates to uncertainty in the future state of groundwater resources. In this contribution, seven downscaled future climate scenarios for a northern humid-continental climate in eastern Canada were generated from selected combinations of GCMs, emission scenarios, and downscaling approaches. Meteorological data from the climate scenarios and field data from a small unconfined aquifer were used to estimate groundwater recharge with the soil water balance model HELP3. HELP3 simulations for the period 2046-2065 indicated that projected recharge was most sensitive to the selected downscaling/debiasing algorithm and GCM. Projected changes in average annual recharge varied from an increase of 58% to a decrease of 6% relative to the 1961-2000 reference period. Such a large range in projected recharge provides very little useful information regarding the future state of groundwater resources. Additional results from recent comparable studies are compiled and discussed. Based on the results obtained from the present case study and the other studies reviewed, the limitations of current approaches for projecting future recharge are identified, and several suggestions for research opportunities to advance this field are offered.
机译：全球气候模型（GCM）预测了区域和全球平均降水和气温的重大变化，这些变化可能会对地下水补给产生相关影响。在最近的气候变化影响研究中，一种常见的方法是采用多个缩小规模的气候变化情景来驱动水文模型并预测补给可能性的范围。但是，此过程中的每个步骤都会在水文结果中引入可变性，从而导致未来地下水资源状态的不确定性。在此贡献中，从GCM，排放情景和缩减方法的选定组合中，得出了加拿大东部北部潮湿-大陆气候的七个缩减的未来气候情景。来自气候情景的气象数据和来自小型无限制含水层的野外数据被用于估算土壤水平衡模型HELP3的地下水补给量。 2046-2065年期间的HELP3模拟表明，预计的补给对所选的降尺度/去偏置算法和GCM最敏感。相对于1961-2000年参考期，预计的平均年充值变化从增加58％到减少6％。预计补给的范围如此之大，有关地下水资源未来状态的有用信息很少。最近的可比研究的其他结果已被汇编和讨论。根据从本案例研究和其他研究中获得的结果，确定了当前预测未来补给方法的局限性，并为推进该领域的研究机会提供了一些建议。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号