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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Hydrology >An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty)
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An application of the UKCIP02 climate change scenarios to flood estimation by continuous simulation for a gauged catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK (with uncertainty)

机译：UKCIP02气候变化情景通过连续模拟对英国苏格兰东北部某个受规河流域进行洪水估算的应用（不确定性）

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摘要

This paper explores the potential impacts of climate change upon flood frequency for the gauged, Lossie catchment in the northeast of Scotland, UK. This catchment has significant flooding problems, but only limited data availability (particularly with respect to rainfall). A continuous simulation methodology, which uses a stochastic rainfall model to drive the rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL, is utilised. Behavioural parameter sets for TOPMODEL are identified prior to the climate change runs using the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) methodology. The "Low Emissions", "Medium-Low Emissions", "Medium-High Emissions" and "High Emissions" UKCIP02 climate change scenarios, obtained from the HadCM3 global climate model (GCM) and HadRM3 regional climate model (RCM) simulations, are used at the catchment scale. Two further scenarios ("H-Dry" and "H-Wet"), based upon the model uncertainty margins available for the UKCIP02 "High Emissions" scenario, are also developed in order to explore the possible range of changes to daily rainfall and temperature estimated from GCMs other than HadCM3. It is demonstrated that, white flood magnitude changes under all six of the climate change scenarios considered, the magnitude and direction of that change is dependent upon the choice of scenario. An overlap between the likelihood weighted uncertainty bounds estimated under the conditions of the current climate and those estimated under the four UKCIP02 scenarios and the "H-Dry" scenario is also observed. These findings highlight the need to consider multiple climate change scenarios and account for model uncertainties when estimating the possible effects of climate change upon flood frequency. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：本文探讨了英国苏格兰东北部经测量的洛西流域的气候变化对洪水频率的潜在影响。该流域存在严重的洪灾问题，但数据可用性有限（尤其是在降雨方面）。利用了一种连续模拟方法，该方法使用随机降雨模型来驱动降雨径流模型TOPMODEL。在TOPMODEL的行为参数集是在气候变化运行之前使用广义似然不确定性估计（GLUE）方法进行标识的。从HadCM3全球气候模型（GCM）和HadRM3区域气候模型（RCM）模拟获得的UKCIP02气候变化方案包括“低排放”，“中低排放”，“中高排放”和“高排放”。以流域规模使用。基于UKCIP02“高排放”情景可用的模型不确定性余量，还开发了另外两种情景（“ H干燥”和“ H湿”），以探索每日降雨量和温度变化的可能范围由HadCM3以外的GCM估算。结果表明，在所有六个气候变化情景下，白色洪水的强度变化，其变化的幅度和方向取决于情景的选择。还观察到在当前气候条件下估算的似然加权不确定性界限与在四种UKCIP02方案和“ H-Dry”方案下估算的似然加权不确定性界限之间存在重叠。这些发现强调了在评估气候变化对洪水频率的可能影响时，需要考虑多种气候变化情景并考虑模型的不确定性。 （c）2006 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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