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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrology, New Zealand >Combined snow and streamflow modelling to estimate impacts of climate change on water resources in the Clutha River, New Zealand
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Combined snow and streamflow modelling to estimate impacts of climate change on water resources in the Clutha River, New Zealand

机译：结合雪流模型，估算气候变化对新西兰克鲁萨河水资源的影响

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摘要

Global climate is changing in response to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. This change may have multiple hydrological effects. The most obvious effect of climate change on hydrology is through changes in rainfall patterns, hut hydrology is also strongly affected by changing temperatures (e.g., changes in evapotranspiration and snowfall). In this paper we focus on the effects of climate change on the Clutha River, in the South Island of New Zealand. We present an analysis of the projected weekly averaged flows of the Clutha at Balclutha, comparing the current situation (1980-1999) with two future time periods (2030-2049 and 2080-2099) for one "middle of the road" emission scenario, Al B, using data from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. The investigation used the distributed hydrological model TopNet, which includes a snow model. The model was validated against 20-year streamflow records for three locations in die catchment. Climate predictions of 12 different Global Circulation Models for the Al B scenario (as well as the average of those 12) were used as input to the model. In the future scenarios annual precipitation increases in this catchment. The total yearly streamflow increases as a response (-6% for 2040 scenario and -10% for 2090 scenario); however the relative contribution of snowmelt to streamflow decreases. The most striking change is in the seasonality of streamflow. Streamflow in winter and spring increases substantially, whereas stream-flow in summer and autumn is relatively unchanged. Two factors contribute to this effect: 1) total precipitation increases over winter and spring (up to 40% in some areas of the catchment for the 2090 scenario), whereas it remains constant or decreases slightly over summer and autumn in some areas, and 2) during winter and spring, precipitation falls more often as rainfall (rather than snow) in the future scenarios.
机译：全球气候随着大气中温室气体浓度的增加而变化。这种变化可能会产生多种水文影响。气候变化对水文学的最明显影响是通过降雨模式的变化，小屋水文学也受到温度变化的强烈影响（例如蒸散量和降雪量的变化）。在本文中，我们重点研究气候变化对新西兰南岛克鲁萨河的影响。我们对Balclutha的Clutha的预计每周平均流量进行了分析，将当前状况（1980-1999）与两个“道路中间”排放情景的两个未来时期（2030-2049和2080-2099）进行了比较， A B，使用来自IPCC第四次评估报告的数据。调查使用分布式水文模型TopNet，其中包括雪模型。该模型已针对流域三个位置的20年流量记录进行了验证。 Al B情景的12种不同全球环流模型的气候预测（以及这12种的平均值）被用作该模型的输入。在未来的情况下，该流域的年降水量会增加。作为响应，年度总流量增加（2040年方案为-6％，2090年方案为-10％）;然而，融雪对水流的相对贡献降低了。最显着的变化是水流的季节性。冬季和春季的流量大大增加，而夏季和秋季的流量相对不变。造成这种影响的因素有两个：1）冬季和春季的总降水量增加（在2090年情景中，流域的某些地区高达40％），而在某些地区，夏季和秋季则保持不变或略有下降; 2 ）在冬季和春季，在未来的情况下，降水的下降频率通常会更高（而不是降雪）。

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