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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Distributions-Oriented Verification of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions
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Distributions-Oriented Verification of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions

机译：面向集合的流量预测的分布验证

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摘要

Ensemble streamflow prediction systems produce forecasts in the form of a conditional probability distribution for a continuous forecast variable. A distributions-oriented approach is presented for verification of these probability distribution forecasts. First, a flow threshold is used to transform the ensemble forecast into a probability forecast for a dichotomous event. The event is said to occur if the observed flow is less than or equal to the threshold; the probability forecast is the probability that the event occurs. The distributions-oriented approach, which has been developed for meteorological forecast verification, is then applied to estimate forecast quality measures for a verification dataset. The results are summarized for thresholds chosen to cover the range of possible flow outcomes. To aid in the comparison for different thresholds, relative measures are used to assess forecast quality. An application with experimental forecasts for the Des Moines River basin illustrates the approach. The application demonstrates the added insights on forecast quality gained through this approach, as compared to more traditional ensemble verification approaches. By examining aspects of forecast quality over the range of possible flow outcomes, the distributions-oriented approach facilitates a diagnostic evaluation of ensemble forecasting systems.
机译：集合流量预测系统以连续预测变量的条件概率分布的形式生成预测。提出了一种面向分布的方法来验证这些概率分布预测。首先，使用流量阈值将整体预测转换为针对二分事件的概率预测。如果观察到的流量小于或等于阈值，则认为发生该事件;概率预测是事件发生的概率。针对气象预测验证而开发的面向分布的方法随后被用于估计验证数据集的预测质量度量。为选定的阈值汇总了结果，以覆盖可能的流量结果范围。为了帮助比较不同的阈值，使用了相对的方法来评估预测质量。得梅因河流域的实验预测应用程序说明了该方法。与更传统的集成验证方法相比，该应用程序演示了通过此方法获得的关于预测质量的更多见解。通过检查可能的流量结果范围内的预测质量的各个方面，面向分布的方法有助于对集成预测系统进行诊断评估。

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