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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Pacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Variability and Temporal Pattern of Winter Flows in Northwestern North America
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Pacific Decadal Oscillation Climate Variability and Temporal Pattern of Winter Flows in Northwestern North America

机译：北美西北太平洋太平洋年代际涛动气候变化和冬季水流的时间格局

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摘要

There is growing concern about the effects of large-scale oceanic atmospheric climate variability, such as the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), on regional hydrology and water resources. In this paper, the effects of PDO on temporal patterns of winter (January-March) flow in northwestern North America (NWNA), which is believed to be a PDO-sensitive region, is studied for the period 1943-2007 using daily streamflow data from a much larger set of 179 stations, compared to previous studies in which only smaller subsets of these stations were analyzed. Time series of winter flows were divided into two nonoverlapping blocks corresponding to change points detected in time series of December-March mean monthly PDO indices. Both parametric and nonparametric measures of correlation and average percentage differences and average standardized differences from the period-of-record mean were explored. Like some of the previous studies, it is found that, on average, winter flows tend to be higher (lower) during the warm (cold) phase of the PDO and that establishes the physical link between large-scale climate variability and basin response. It is shown that the serial structure of time series of PDO indices conforms to that of a stochastic process with long-term persistence (LTP). Based on this finding and the climate-streamflow physical link, it is plausible to investigate temporal variations in winter flows with the LTP hypothesis, in addition to assuming merely independence (IND) or short-term persistence (STP). The results of the analysis demonstrate that the LTP mechanism, in combination with the STP, is able to explain more than half of the significant trends noted, with the IND assumption suggesting that the significance of trends reported in previous studies in NWNA may have been overstated. This result has important implications for future planning of regional water resources.
机译：人们越来越关注诸如太平洋年代际振荡（PDO）之类的大范围海洋大气气候变化对区域水文学和水资源的影响。在本文中，使用每日流量数据研究了PDO对北美西北部（NWNA）冬季（1月至3月）流量的时间模式的影响，该地区被认为是PDO敏感区域，与以前的研究相比，以前的研究仅分析了这些站点的较小子集，而该集合来自179个更大的站点。冬季流量的时间序列分为两个非重叠块，分别对应于12月至3月平均每月PDO指数时间序列中检测到的变化点。研究了相关性和非参数性度量以及与记录期间平均值相比的平均百分比差异和平均标准化差异。像以前的一些研究一样，发现平均而言，在PDO的温暖（寒冷）阶段，冬季流量倾向于较高（较低），这建立了大规模气候变化与流域响应之间的物理联系。结果表明，PDO索引的时间序列的序列结构与具有长期持久性（LTP）的随机过程的序列结构一致。基于此发现和气候流物理联系，除了仅假设独立性（IND）或短期持续性（STP）之外，还可以使用LTP假设研究冬季流量的时间变化。分析结果表明，LTP机制与STP结合可以解释超过一半的重要趋势，而IND假设表明，以前在NWNA中研究报告的趋势的重要性可能被夸大了。这一结果对未来区域水资源规划具有重要意义。

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