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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >Dendroclimatic Reconstruction at Kilometer-Scale Grid Points: A Case Study from the Great Basin of North America
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Dendroclimatic Reconstruction at Kilometer-Scale Grid Points: A Case Study from the Great Basin of North America

机译：千米尺度网格点的树状气候重建：以北美大盆地为例

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Preparing for future hydroclimatic variability greatly benefits from long (i.e., multicentury) records at seasonal to annual time steps that have been gridded at kilometer-scale spatial intervals over a geographic region. Kriging is commonly used for optimal interpolation of environmental data, and space-time geostatistical models can improve kriging estimates when long temporal sequences of observations exist at relatively few points on the landscape. A network of 22 tree-ring chronologies from single-leaf pinyon (Pinus monophylla) in the central Great Basin of North America was used to extend hydroclimatic records both temporally and spatially. First, the line of organic correlation (LOC) method was used to reconstruct October-May total precipitation anomalies at each tree-ring site, as these ecotonal environments at the lower forest border are typically moisture-limited areas. Individual site reconstructions were then combined using a hierarchical model of spatiotemporal kriging that produced annual anomaly maps on a 12 km 3 12km grid during the period in common among all chronologies (1650-1976). Hydroclimatic episodes were numerically identified using their duration, magnitude, and peak. Precipitation anomalies were spatially more variable during wet years than during dry years, and the evolution of drought episodes over space and time could be visualized and quantified. The most remarkable episode in the entire reconstruction was the early 1900s pluvial, followed by the late 1800s drought. The 1930s Dust Bowl drought was among the top 10 hydroclimatic episodes in the past few centuries. These results directly address the needs of water and natural resource managers with respect to planning for worst-case scenarios of drought duration and magnitude at the watershed level.
机译：未来的水文气候变化的准备工作将极大地受益于季节到年度时间步长的长期记录（即多个世纪），这些记录已按地理区域的千米级空间间隔进行网格化。克里金法通常用于环境数据的最佳插值，并且当景观上相对较少的点上存在较长的观测时间序列时，时空地统计模型可以改善克里金法估计。来自北美中部大盆地的单叶Pinyon（Pinus monophylla）的22个树轮年表的网络被用来在时间和空间上扩展水文气候记录。首先，使用有机相关线（LOC）方法来重建每个树木年轮站点10月至5月的总降水异常，因为这些森林下部边界的生态环境通常是水分受限的区域。然后，使用时空克里金的分层模型将各个地点的重建结合起来，该模型在所有年代学（1650-1976年）所共有的时期内，在12 km 3 12 km的网格上生成年度异常图。使用持续时间，强度和峰值在数值上识别出水文气候事件。干旱年份的降水异常在空间上的变化要比干旱年份的多，而且干旱现象随时间和空间的演变可以被可视化和量化。整个重建过程中最引人注目的事件是1900年代初的干旱，随后是1800年代后期的干旱。 1930年代的沙尘暴干旱是过去几个世纪以来十大水文气候事件之一。这些结果直接满足了水资源和自然资源管理者在规划流域一级干旱持续时间和严重程度最坏情况的需求。

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