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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >The Attribution of Land-Atmosphere Interactions on the Seasonal Predictability of Drought
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The Attribution of Land-Atmosphere Interactions on the Seasonal Predictability of Drought

机译：陆-气相互作用对干旱季节可预测性的影响

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摘要

Drought has significant social and economic impacts that could be reduced by preparations made possible through seasonal prediction. During the convective season, when the potential of extreme drought is the highest, the soil moisture can provide a means of improved predictability through land-atmosphere interactions. In the past decade, there has been a significant amount of work aimed at better understanding the predictability of land-atmosphere interactions. One such approach classifies the interactions between the land and the atmosphere into coupling states. The coupling states have been shown to be persistent and were used to demonstrate the existence of strong biases in the coupling of the NCEP Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2). In this work, the attribution of the coupling state on the seasonal prediction of precipitation and temperature and the extent to which the bias in the coupling state hinders the prediction of drought is analyzed. This analysis combines the predictions from statistical models with the predictions from CFSv2 as a means to isolate and attribute the predictability. The results indicate that the intermountain region is a hotspot for seasonal prediction because of local persistence of initial conditions. In addition, the local persistence of initial conditions provides some level of drought prediction; however, accounting for the spatial interactions provides a more complete prediction. Furthermore, the statistical models provide more skillful predictions of precipitation during drought than the CFSv2; however, the CFSv2 predictions are more skillful for daily maximum temperature during drought. The implication, limitations, and extensions of this work are also discussed.
机译：干旱具有重大的社会和经济影响，可以通过季节性预测来减少干旱的发生。在对流季节，当极端干旱的可能性最高时，土壤湿度可以通过陆-气相互作用提供改善的可预测性的手段。在过去的十年中，进行了大量工作，旨在更好地了解陆地与大气相互作用的可预测性。一种这样的方法将土地和大气之间的相互作用分类为耦合状态。耦合状态已被证明是持久的，并被用来证明在NCEP气候预报系统版本2（CFSv2）的耦合中存在强烈偏差。在这项工作中，分析了耦合状态对降水和温度的季节性预测的影响以及耦合状态的偏差在多大程度上阻碍了干旱的预测。此分析将统计模型的预测与CFSv2的预测结合在一起，以此作为隔离和归因于可预测性的一种手段。结果表明，由于初始条件的局部持久性，山间地区是季节性预测的热点。另外，初始条件的局部持久性提供了一定程度的干旱预报;但是，考虑空间相互作用会提供更完整的预测。此外，与CFSv2相比，统计模型提供了更干旱的降水预报。但是，CFSv2预测对于干旱期间的每日最高温度更为熟练。还讨论了这项工作的含义，局限性和扩展性。

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