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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of hydrometeorology >High-Resolution Simulations of Decadal Climate Variability Impacts on Water Yield in the Missouri River Basin with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
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High-Resolution Simulations of Decadal Climate Variability Impacts on Water Yield in the Missouri River Basin with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

机译：使用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）对密苏里河流域的年代际气候变化对水产量的影响进行高分辨率模拟

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The Missouri River basin (MRB) is the largest river basin in the United States and is one of the most important agricultural regions in the world. Three decadal climate variability (DCV) phenomena-the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) gradient variability (TAG), and the west Pacific warm pool SST variability (WPWP)-substantially influence hydrometeorology in the MRB. The authors report on a simulation study with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to estimate impacts on water availability in response to realistic values of PDO, TAG, and WPWP indices in approximately 13 500 hydrologic unit areas covering the MRB. SWAT, driven by hydrometeorological anomalies associated with positive and negative phases of PDO and TAG, indicated major impacts on water yields and streamflows, as much as +/- 40% of the average in many locations. Impacts of the WPWP index were smaller. Consistent with observations during 1949-2010, SWAT showed water flow increases of as much as 80% of the average, causing very wet periods when the positive phase of the PDO and the negative phase of the TAG at extreme amplitudes were superposed. Water flows decreased by a similar amount, resulting in severe to extreme droughts when the negative phase of the PDO and the positive phase of the TAG at extreme amplitudes were superposed. Thus, the combined and cumulative effects of these DCV phenomena on water flows, droughts, and wet periods in the MRB can be dramatic, with important consequences for all water-consuming sectors as well as for feedbacks to the climate system.
机译：密苏里河流域（MRB）是美国最大的流域，也是世界上最重要的农业地区之一。三个年代际气候变化（DCV）现象-太平洋年代际振荡（PDO），热带大西洋海表温度（SST）梯度变化（TAG）和西太平洋暖池SST变异性（WPWP）-实质上影响了MRB中的水文气象。作者报告了使用土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）进行的模拟研究，以评估覆盖MRB的大约13 500个水文单位区域中PDO，TAG和WPWP指数的实际值对水可用性的影响。 SWAT是由与PDO和TAG的正相和负相相关的水文气象异常驱动的，它显示出对水产量和水流量的重大影响，在许多地方，其影响高达平均水平的+/- 40％。 WPWP指数的影响较小。与1949-2010年期间的观察结果一致，SWAT显示水流量增加了平均水平的80％，从而在极高振幅下叠加PDO的正相和TAG的负相导致非常潮湿的时期。当PDO的负相和TAG的正相以极高的幅度叠加时，水流量减少了相似的量，导致了严重到极端的干旱。因此，这些DCV现象对MRB中的水流，干旱和潮湿期的综合和累积影响可能是巨大的，这对所有耗水部门以及对气候系统的反馈都将产生重要影响。

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