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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Korean Forest Society >Assessments of Negotiation Options Regarding Post-2012 Rules for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) -With a Focus on the Forest Management Activities under the Kyoto Protocol-
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Assessments of Negotiation Options Regarding Post-2012 Rules for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) -With a Focus on the Forest Management Activities under the Kyoto Protocol-

机译：关于2012年后土地利用，土地利用变化和林业（LULUCF）规则的谈判方案评估-以《京都议定书》下的森林管理活动为重点-

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Annex I parties continued its consideration of how to address, the definitions, modalities, rules and guidelines for the treatment of Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol by the year of 2009. In the AWG-KP conference held in Accra, Ghana in 2008, four alternatives (gross-net carbon accounting, net-net with base year or base period accounting, net-net with forward looking baseline accounting, and land-based accounting method) for negotiations were decided in order to revise gross-net accounting method applied during the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In this study, alternative scenarios are set in consideration with reporting system (voluntary or compulsory), discount factors and cap about these three alternatives except for the method of net-net with forward looking baseline accounting, and then estimates the Removal Unit (RMU) among the countries. In the case that article 3.4 activities under the Kyoto Protocol revises from voluntary reporting to mandatory reporting, it is estimated that the loss of R-MU would be huge in Russia, Australia, New Zealand, as well as Canada potentially. Net-net with base year or base period carbon accounting and land-based carbon accounting method have big difference of RMU in accordance with the base year or the base period. So the more unfavorable the country with a lot of old-age forests was, the closer the base year or period comes to the commitment period in the context of RMU. If it is getting lowered for the current rate of 85% in discount factors, RMU is getting higher to the whole countries. Therefore in Korea with little potential for afforestation and reforestation, there was the most sensitive response to the change of discount factors. Post-2012 LULUCF hereafter, it is strongly expected for the succession of current carbon accounting system which is voluntary reporting of gross-net carbon accounting and the activity for article 3.4. Other carbon accounting method is hard to accept in aspect that there is big differentiated interests among the countries and it is required enormous cost and time to develop reliable method. Provide for Post-2012 mandatory greenhouse gas reduction, Korea needs to have a competitive negotiation strategies differentiated from Annex I countries. The most reliable alternative would be to lower the discounting factors about the activities for forest management.
机译：附件一缔约方继续审议如何在2009年《京都议定书》的第二个承诺期内解决土地使用，土地使用变化和林业（LULUCF）的定义，方式，规则和准则。在2008年在加纳阿克拉举行的AWG-KP会议上，有四种选择（总净碳会计，具有基准年或基准期会计的净额，具有前瞻性基准会计的净额和基于土地的会计方法）为了修订在《京都议定书》第一个承​​诺期内采用的毛额净额计算方法，决定进行谈判。在本研究中，考虑了报告系统（自愿或强制性），折现因子和这三种替代方案的上限的替代方案，但采用具有前瞻性基准核算的净额结算方法除外，然后估算了清除单位（RMU）在国家之间。如果《京都议定书》第3.4条规定的活动从自愿报告改为强制报告，则估计R-MU的损失在俄罗斯，澳大利亚，新西兰和加拿大可能是巨大的。基准年或基准期碳核算与陆基碳核算方法的净额根据基准年或基准期的RMU差异较大。因此，拥有大量森林的国家越不利，基准年或基准期就越接近RMU的承诺期。如果按照折现率的85％的当前价格降低，则RMU对整个国家的价格都将提高。因此，在造林和再造林的潜力很小的韩国，对贴现率变化的反应最为敏感。在2012年后的土地利用，土地利用变化和林业以下，人们强烈希望现有的碳核算体系得以继续，这是自愿报告的净碳净核算和第3.4条的活动。在其他国家之间存在很大的利益差异方面，其他碳会计方法难以接受，开发可靠的方法需要大量的成本和时间。为了实现2012年后强制性减少温室气体排放，韩国需要制定与附件一国家不同的竞争性谈判策略。最可靠的选择是降低森林经营活动的折现率。

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