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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Integrative Agriculture >Spatial distribution prediction and benefits assessment of green manure in the Pinggu District, Beijing, based on the CLUE-S model
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Spatial distribution prediction and benefits assessment of green manure in the Pinggu District, Beijing, based on the CLUE-S model

机译：基于CLUE-S模型的北京市平谷区绿肥空间分布预测及效益评价

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Green manure use in China has declined rapidly since the 1980s with the extensive use of chemical fertilizers. The deterioration of field environments and the demand for green agricultural products have resulted in more attention to green manure. Human intervention and policy-oriented behaviors likely have large impacts on promoting green manure planting. However, little information is available regarding on where: at what rates, and in which ways (i.e., intercropping green manure in orchards or rotating green manure in cropland) to develop green manure and what benefits could be gained by incorporating green manure in fields at the county scale. This paper presents the conversion of land use and its effects at small region extent (CLUE-S) model, which is specifically developed for the simulation of land use changes originally, to predict spatial distribution of green manure in cropland and orchards in 2020 in Pinggu District located in Beijing, China. Four types of land use for planting or not planting green manure were classified and the future land use dynamics (mainly croplands and orchards) were considered in the prediction. Two scenarios were used to predict the spatial distribution of green manure based on data from 2011: The promotion of green manure planting in orchards (scenario 1) and the promotion of simultaneous green manure planting in orchards and croplands (scenario 2). The predictions were generally accurate based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and Kappa indices, which validated the effectiveness of the CLUE-S model in the prediction. In addition, the spatial distribution of the green manure was acquired, which indicated that green manure mainly located in the orchards of the middle and southern regions of Dahuashan, the western and southern regions of Wangxinzhuang, the middle region of Shandongzhuang, the eastern region of Pinggu and the middle region of Xiagezhuang under scenario 1. Green manure planting under scenario 2 occurred in orchards in the middle region of Wangxinzhuang, and croplands in most regions of Daxingzhuang, southern Pinggu, northern Xiagezhuang and most of Mafang. The spatially explicit results allowed for the assessment of the benefits of these changes based on different economic and ecological indicators. The economic and ecological gains of scenarios 1 and 2 were 175 691 900 and 143 000 300 CNY, respectively, which indicated that the first scenario was more beneficial for promoting the same area of green manure. These results can facilitate policies of promoting green manure and guide the extensive use of green manure in local agricultural production in suitable ways.
机译：自1980年代以来，随着化学肥料的广泛使用，中国的绿肥使用量迅速下降。田间环境的恶化和对绿色农产品的需求已引起人们对绿色肥料的更多关注。人为干预和政策导向行为可能对促进绿肥种植产生重大影响。但是，关于以下方面的信息很少：在什么地方以什么速率，以何种方式（例如，在果园间种绿肥或在农田中轮作绿肥）发展绿肥，以及将绿肥掺入农田中可以获得什么好处。县级规模。本文介绍了土地利用的转换及其在小区域范围内的影响（CLUE-S）模型，该模型专门为原始模拟土地利用变化而开发，以预测平谷地区2020年农田和果园的绿肥空间分布区位于中国北京。分类了用于种植或不种植绿肥的四种土地利用类型，并在预测中考虑了未来的土地利用动态（主要是农田和果园）。基于2011年的数据，使用了两种方案来预测绿肥的空间分布：促进果园中绿色肥料的种植（方案1）和促进果园和农田中绿色肥料的同时种植（方案2）。基于接收器工作特性（ROC）和Kappa指数的预测通常是准确的，这验证了CLUE-S模型在预测中的有效性。另外，获得了绿肥的空间分布，表明绿肥主要分布在大化山中南部，王新庄中西部，山东庄中部，东部地区果园。方案1下的平谷和下agezhuang中部地区。方案2下的绿肥种植发生在王新庄中部的果园中，以及大兴庄，平谷南部，下agezhuang北部和大部分Mafang大部分地区的农田。空间上明确的结果允许根据不同的经济和生态指标评估这些变化的收益。方案1和2的经济和生态收益分别为175 691 900和143 000 300元，这表明第一种方案对推广同一面积的绿肥更有利。这些结果可以促进促进绿色肥料的政策，并以适当的方式指导绿色肥料在当地农业生产中的广泛使用。

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