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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of loss prevention in the process industries >Weighted expectation: a new risk-based method for assessing land use development proposals in the vicinity of major hazards
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Weighted expectation: a new risk-based method for assessing land use development proposals in the vicinity of major hazards

机译：加权期望：一种基于风险的新方法，用于评估重大灾害附近的土地利用开发提案

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BG Technology and the Major Hazard Assessment Unit (MHAU) of the Chemicals and Hazardous Installations Division (CHID) of the HSE have developed a novel approach for the management of the risk of harm to people in the vicinity of major hazards.Particular attention is given to such risk in the vicinity of high-pressure gas pipelines.The objective of the approach is to provide a means of allowing reasonable development of land whilst ensuring that a tolerable level of risk is maintained.One means of managing this type of risk is known as the F/N approach. The F/N approach expresses and manages the risk in terms of the frequency, F, of N or more casualties occurring. However, the F/N approach may lead to a perceived inconsistency as itmay allow some initial development of a particular type of dwelling in a particular location, then preclude further development in adjacent locations.The approach derived herein provides some alleviation to this perceived inconsistency by discouraging localised regions of high population density, thereby promoting a more uniform distribution of development of land.The essence of the approach is to apply a weighting (≥1) to casualty density prior to the evaluation of casualty expectation. The resulting parameter, which has been aptly named weighted expectation (WE), is assessed according to a criterion based ontrue casualty expectation (E). The weighting on casualty density is derived directly from an appropriately constructed F/N criterion line (or envelope), thereby ensuring a close relationship between the outcomes of WE and F/N assessments.The Scaled Risk Integral (SRI), which has been developed previously, is shown to be a special case of WE.The practical application of WE and its relationship with F/N are demonstrated through simple high-pressure pipeline case studies.
机译：BG Technology和HSE的化学与危险设施部（CHID）的主要危险评估单位（MHAU）已经开发出一种新颖的方法来管理重大危险附近人员受到伤害的风险，并给予了特别关注这种方法的目的是提供一种允许合理开发土地的方法，同时确保维持可承受的风险水平。已知一种管理此类风险的方法。作为F / N方法。 F / N方法以N个或更多人员伤亡的发生频率F来表达和管理风险。但是，F / N方法可能会导致感知到的不一致，因为它可能允许在特定位置对某个特定类型的住宅进行一些初始开发，然后阻止在相邻位置进行进一步的开发。本文得出的方法可通过以下方法缓解这种感知到的不一致：不鼓励高人口密度的局部区域，从而促进土地开发的更均匀分布。该方法的本质是在评估伤亡预期之前对伤亡密度应用加权（≥1）。根据基于真实伤亡期望值（E）的标准评估得到的参数，恰当地将其称为加权期望值（WE）。人员伤亡密度的权重直接来自适当构造的F / N准则线（或包络），从而确保WE和F / N评估的结果之间具有密切的关系。已开发的规模风险积分（SRI）通过简单的高压管道案例研究，证明了WE的实际应用及其与F / N的关系。

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