Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

Dippner Joachim W.; Kroencke Ingrid

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Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

机译：政权突变时的生态预测

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Regime shifts may cause an intrinsic decrease in the potential predictability of marine ecosystems. In such cases, forecasts of biological variables fail. To improve prediction of long-term variability in environmental variables, we constructed a multivariate climate index and applied it to forecast ecological time series. The concept is demonstrated herein using climate and macrozoobenthos data from the southern North Sea. Special emphasis is given to the influence of selection of length of fitting period to the quality of forecast skill especially in the presence of regime shifts.

机译：政权转移可能会导致海洋生态系统潜在可预测性的内在下降。在这种情况下，生物学变量的预测将失败。为了改善对环境变量长期变化的预测，我们构建了一个多元气候指数并将其用于预测生态时间序列。本文使用北海南部的气候和大型动物资料证明了这一概念。特别强调了拟合时间长度的选择对预测技能质量的影响，特别是在存在政权转移的情况下。

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《Journal of marine systems: journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques》 |2015年第null期|共7页
作者
Dippner Joachim W.; Kroencke Ingrid;
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正文语种 eng
中图分类水路运输;
关键词
Regime shifts; Potential predictability; Forecast; Macrozoobenthos; North Sea; Marine Strategy Framework Directive;

机译：政权转移;潜在的可预测性;预测;宏观动物;北海;海洋战略框架指令;

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1. Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts [J] . Dippner Joachim W., Kroencke Ingrid Journal of marine systems: journal of the European Association of Marine Sciences and Techniques . 2015,第Null期

机译：政权突变时的生态预测
2. Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kalksjon, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event [J] . Randsalu-Wendrup Linda, Conley Daniel J., Carstensen Jacob, Ecosystems . 2012,第8期

机译：响应8.2 ka降温事件后瑞典突然的气候变化，瑞典卡尔克斯洪湖的生态体制发生变化
3. Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event [J] . Linda Randsalu-Wendrup, Daniel J. Conley, Jacob Carstensen, Ecosystems . 2012,第8期

机译：响应8.2 ka降温事件后，瑞典突然出现的气候变化，瑞典Kälksjön湖的生态制度发生了变化
4. Regime Shifts in the Atmosphere and Their Relationship to Abrupt Ocean Changes [C] . Alfred M. Powell, Jr, Jianjun Xu, NATO advanced research workshop on using satellite and in-situ data to improve sustainability . 2011

机译：政权在大气中转移及其与突然海洋变化的关系
5. Overcoming Disruptions of Human Adjustment Processes to Ecological Shifts in Revolutionary Burkina Faso 1983-1987: The Interrelationship Between Externally Imposed Migration, Coordination of Ngo Activities, and the Process of Ecological Renewal Through Land Reform [D] . Penner, Robert 2019

机译：克服1983-1987年革命性布基纳法索人类对生态变化的适应过程的破坏：外来移民，非政府组织活动的协调与通过土地改革进行生态更新的过程之间的相互关系
6. Data-driven identification of reliable sensor species to predict regime shifts in ecological networks [O] . Amin Ghadami, Shiyang Chen, Bogdan I. Epureanu 2020

机译：可靠传感器物种预测生态网络转换的数据驱动识别
7. Ecological Regime Shifts in Lake Kälksjön, Sweden, in Response to Abrupt Climate Change Around the 8.2 ka Cooling Event [O] . Linda Randsalu-Wendrup, Daniel J. Conley, Jacob Carstensen, 2012

机译：响应8.2 ka降温事件后突然的气候变化，瑞典凯尔舍恩湖生态状况发生了变化

Ecological forecasting in the presence of abrupt regime shifts

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