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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Mathematical Biology >Model for disease dynamics of a waterborne pathogen on a random network
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Model for disease dynamics of a waterborne pathogen on a random network

机译：随机网络上水生病原体疾病动力学模型

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摘要

A network epidemic SIWR model for cholera and other diseases that can be transmitted via the environment is developed and analyzed. The person-to-person contacts are modeled by a random contact network, and the contagious environment is modeled by an external node that connects to every individual. The model is adapted from the Miller network SIR model, and in the homogeneous mixing limit becomes the Tien and Earn deterministic cholera model without births and deaths. The dynamics of our model shows excellent agreement with stochastic simulations. The basic reproduction number is computed, and on a Poisson network shown to be the sum of the basic reproduction numbers of the person-to-person and person-to-water-to-person transmission pathways. However, on other networks, depends nonlinearly on the transmission along the two pathways. Type reproduction numbers are computed and quantify measures to control the disease. Equations giving the final epidemic size are obtained.
机译：开发并分析了可通过环境传播的霍乱和其他疾病的网络流行SIWR模型。人与人之间的联系是由随机联系网络建模的，传染性环境是由与每个人连接的外部节点建模的。该模型是根据Miller网络SIR模型改编而成的，并且在均匀混合极限下变为Tien and Earn确定性霍乱模型，而没有生与死。我们模型的动力学表现出与随机模拟的极好的一致性。计算基本再现数，并在泊松网络上显示为人对人和人对水对人传输路径的基本再现数之和。但是，在其他网络上，非线性取决于沿着这两个路径的传输。计算类型繁殖数并量化控制疾病的措施。获得给出最终流行病规模的方程。

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