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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Macroeconomics >Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation
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Fitting survey expectations and uncertainty about trend inflation

机译：使调查预期与趋势通胀的不确定性相符

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Many studies document that the inflation rate is governed by persistent trend shifts and time-varying uncertainty about trend inflation. As both these quantities are unobserved, a forecaster has to learn about changes in trend inflation by a signal extraction procedure. 1 suggest that the forecaster uses a simple IMA(1,1) model because it is well suited to forecast inflation and it provides an efficient way to solve the signal extraction problem. 1 test whether this model provides a good fit for expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. The model appears to be well suited to model observed inflation expectations if we allow for stochastic volatility. When 1 estimate the implied learning rule, results are supportive for the trend learning hypothesis. Moreover, stochastic volatility seems to influence the way agents learn over time. It appears that survey participants systematically adapt their learning behavior when inflation uncertainty changes.
机译：许多研究表明，通货膨胀率受持续的趋势变化和趋势通货膨胀随时间变化的不确定性的支配。由于这两个数量均未观察到，因此预测员必须通过信号提取程序来了解趋势膨胀的变化。 1表示预测器使用简单的IMA（1,1）模型，因为它非常适合预测通货膨胀，并且它提供了解决信号提取问题的有效方法。 1测试该模型是否满足专业预测者调查的期望。如果我们允许随机波动，则该模型似乎非常适合于对观察到的通胀预期进行建模。当1估计隐含学习规则时，结果将支持趋势学习假设。而且，随机波动性似乎会影响代理人随着时间学习的方式。看起来，当通货膨胀不确定性改变时，调查参与者会系统地调整他们的学习行为。

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