首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Medical Entomology >Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii.
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Modeling the population dynamics of Culex quinquefasciatus (Diptera: Culicidae), along an elevational gradient in Hawaii.

机译:沿夏威夷的海拔梯度模拟库蚊(Culex quinquefasciatus)(种群双翅目(Cuptidae:Culicidae))的种群动态。

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摘要

We present a population model to understand the effects of temperature and rainfall on the population dynamics of the southern house mosquito, Culex quinquefasciatus, along an elevational gradient in Hawaii, USA. We use a novel approach to model the effects of temperature on population growth by dynamically incorporating developmental rate into the transition matrix, by using physiological ages of immatures instead of chronological age or stages. We also model the effects of rainfall on survival of immatures as the cumulative number of days below a certain rain threshold. Finally, we incorporate density dependence into the model as competition between immatures within breeding sites. Our model predicts the upper altitudinal distributions of Cx. quinquefasciatus on the Big Island of Hawaii for self-sustaining mosquito and migrating summer sink populations at 1475 and 1715 m above sea level, respectively. Our model predicts that mosquitoes at lower elevations can grow under a broader range of rainfall parameters than middle and high elevation populations. Density dependence in conjunction with the seasonal forcing imposed by temperature and rain creates cycles in the dynamics of the population that peak in the summer and early fall. The model provides a reasonable fit to the available data on mosquito abundance for the east side of Mauna Loa, Hawaii. The predictions of our model indicate the importance of abiotic conditions on mosquito dynamics and have important implications for the management of diseases transmitted by Cx. quinquefasciatus in Hawaii and elsewhere.
机译:我们提出了一个人口模型,以了解温度和降雨对美国夏威夷南部房屋蚊(Culex quinquefasciatus)沿海拔高度的种群动态的影响。我们使用一种新颖的方法,通过使用未成熟的生理年龄而不是按年代或阶段划分的生理年龄,将发育速率动态地纳入过渡矩阵,从而模拟温度对人口增长的影响。我们还将降雨对未成熟个体存活的影响建模为低于某个降雨阈值的累计天数。最后,我们将密度依赖性纳入模型,作为繁殖地点内未成熟物种之间的竞争。我们的模型预测了Cx的上高度分布。夏威夷大岛上的quinquefasciatus,分别用于自我维持的蚊子和在海拔1475和1715 m处迁移的夏季水槽种群。我们的模型预测,与中高海拔地区的人群相比,低海拔地区的蚊子可以在更大范围的降雨参数下生长。密度依赖性与温度和雨水施加的季节性强迫相结合,在人口动态中形成周期,并在夏季和初秋达到顶峰。该模型对夏威夷莫纳罗亚东部的蚊虫数量的现有数据提供了合理的拟合。我们模型的预测表明非生物条件对蚊子动力学的重要性,并且对控制Cx传播的疾病具有重要意义。夏威夷和其他地方的quinquefasciatus。

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