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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of natural gas science and engineering >Exploring the future of shale gas in China from an economic perspective based on pilot areas in the Sichuan basin-A scenario analysis
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Exploring the future of shale gas in China from an economic perspective based on pilot areas in the Sichuan basin-A scenario analysis

机译：基于四川盆地试点的经济视角探索中国页岩气的未来-情景分析

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Although there have been discussions regarding the commercial prospect of shale gas in China, no quantitative and convincing analysis regarding its economic viability has been reported. This research aims to explore the future of the shale gas industry in China using a single-well model. This model is established with the DCF (Discounted cash flow) method aiming at getting an average or representative reflection of the economic viability of shale gas. In the model based on data mainly from pilot areas in Sichuan Basin, three scenarios are conducted to discuss the current economy, the short-term prospect, and the future of the shale gas industry. Under the current technological and economic conditions, China's shale gas resources are not worth an investment. However, in the near future, several sweet-spots are promising, particularly with the expectation of higher gas prices and lower drilling and completion costs (D&C costs). Although the sweet-spots are promising, it is difficult to achieve the goal of large-scale development according to the known information if mainly relying on current policy, unless there are sufficient sweet-spots. Hence, we hold a cautiously optimistic attitude towards the future of the shale gas industry. We suggest that the government should spend more on supporting resource surveys and exploration in the initial stages. After identifying the resource status, a more comprehensive development plan with systemic policies conformed to the resource status is warranted, including encouragement of technical innovations, a system for mature shale gas technical service markets, and a market-oriented price. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
机译：尽管关于页岩气在中国的商业前景已进行了讨论，但尚未报道有关其经济可行性的定量和令人信服的分析。这项研究旨在使用单井模型探索中国页岩气行业的未来。该模型是使用DCF（折现现金流量）方法建立的，旨在获得页岩气经济可行性的平均或代表性反映。在基于主要来自四川盆地试点地区的数据的模型中，进行了三种情景来讨论页岩气行业的当前经济，短期前景和未来。在当前的技术和经济条件下，中国的页岩气资源不值得投资。但是，在不久的将来，几个最佳勘探点很有希望，特别是在期望天然气价格上涨，钻井和完井成本（D＆C成本）降低的情况下。尽管最有效的方法是有希望的，但是如果主要依靠当前的政策，除非有足够的最佳方法，否则很难根据已知的信息来实现大规模开发的目标。因此，我们对页岩气行业的未来持谨慎乐观的态度。我们建议政府在初期阶段应该花更多的钱来支持资源调查和勘探。确定资源状况后，需要制定一项更全面的发展计划，并制定符合资源状况的系统政策，包括鼓励技术创新，建立成熟的页岩气技术服务市场系统以及以市场为导向的价格。 （C）2015 Elsevier B.V.保留所有权利。

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