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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Political Economy >A note on the causal factors of china's famine in 1959-1961
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A note on the causal factors of china's famine in 1959-1961

机译：关于1959-1961年中国饥荒的因果关系注释

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摘要

In a famine year, the negative impact on population growth can be measured by the number of extra deaths caused by hunger and the number of lost births caused by reduced fertility. Let ED_t and LB_t, be the number of extra deaths and the number of lost births, respectively, in year t. Then ED_t = POP_(t-1)(ADR_t -EDR_t) (1) and LB_t = POP_(t-1)(ABR_t-EBR_t), (2) where POP_(t-1) is the total population in the previous year; ADR_t and EDR_t are, respectively, the actual and expected death rates in year t; and ABR_t and EBR_t, are, respectively, the actual and expected birth rates in year t. Expected death and birth rates are those that would have prevailed if there had been no famine. In other words, the difference between ADR_t and EDR_t is an increased death rate caused by starvation rather than natural wastage. The difference between ABR_t and EBR_t is a lost birth rate caused by lost fertility as a result of famine.
机译：在饥荒年，对人口增长的负面影响可以用饥饿造成的额外死亡人数和生育力下降造成的出生损失人数来衡量。令ED_t和LB_t分别为t年中的额外死亡人数和丢失的生育人数。然后ED_t = POP_（t-1）（ADR_t -EDR_t）（1）和LB_t = POP_（t-1）（ABR_t-EBR_t），（2）其中POP_（t-1）是上一年的总人口; ADR_t和EDR_t分别是第t年的实际死亡率和预期死亡率;和ABR_t和EBR_t分别是t年的实际和预期出生率。预期的死亡率和出生率是没有饥荒的情况下的普遍死亡率。换句话说，ADR_t和EDR_t之间的差异是饥饿造成的死亡率增加，而不是自然浪费。 ABR_t和EBR_t之间的差异是由于饥荒导致的生育力下降造成的出生率下降。

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