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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases: The official journal of National Stroke Association >Proposal for a New Predictive Scale for Recurrent Risk of Fall in a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Patients with Stroke
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Proposal for a New Predictive Scale for Recurrent Risk of Fall in a Cohort of Community-Dwelling Patients with Stroke

机译：关于社区卒中患者队列中跌倒复发风险的新预测量表的建议

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Objectives: This study aimed to determine risk factors related to the occurrence of falls in stroke patients and to propose a new predictive scale for falls. Methods: Demographic and clinical data were collected and the following scales were applied: Barthel Index, Timed Up and Go Test (TUG), and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). Subjects were followed prospectively for 2 years for the occurrence of recurrent (>= 2) falls. Kaplan-Meier curves were constructed and univariable associations were tested using log-rank test. Two separate multi-variable models were then used: the first used Cox proportional hazards regression and the second used Poisson regression. In each model, significant associations were considered present with a P value less than .05. Results: We evaluated 150 individuals and the final analysis included 131 patients; the average age of the patients was 55.8 +/- 13 years, 52% were women, and the median NIHSS score was 2 (interquartile range = 1-5). Falls occurred in 17% of patients, with a median of 23 months of follow-up (interquartile range = 16-26 months). In the multivariable Cox regression model, only TUG quartile, female gender, and posterior circulation territory involvement remained significant predictors of recurrent falls. We used the predictors from the Cox regression model to propose a new recurrent fall risk scale. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 73%, 95% confidence interval = 62%-83%, P =.001, with 81.3% sensitivity and 41.8% specificity. Conclusions: The new predictive scale for recurrent risk (including TUG, posterior circulation territory involvement, and female gender) is presented as an instrument for monitoring the risk of recurrent falls.
机译：目的：本研究旨在确定与中风患者跌倒发生相关的危险因素，并提出一种新的跌倒预测量表。方法：收集人口统计学和临床​​数据，并采用以下量表：Barthel指数，定时出门测验（TUG）和美国国立卫生研究院卒中量表（NIHSS）。对受试者进行了为期2年的前瞻性随访，以观察其是否反复发作（> = 2）。构造Kaplan-Meier曲线，并使用对数秩检验检验单变量关联。然后使用两个单独的多变量模型：第一个使用Cox比例风险回归，第二个使用Poisson回归。在每个模型中，都认为存在显着的关联，且P值小于0.05。结果：我们评估了150个人，最终分析包括131例患者。患者的平均年龄为55.8 +/- 13岁，女性为52％，中位NIHSS评分为2（四分位间距= 1-5）。 17％的患者跌倒，平均随访时间为23个月（四分位间距= 16-26个月）。在多变量Cox回归模型中，只有TUG四分位数，女性和后循环区域受累仍是复发跌倒的重要预测指标。我们使用了Cox回归模型中的预测因子来提出新的经常性跌倒风险量表。接收器工作特性曲线下的面积为73％，置信区间为95％= 62％-83％，P = .001，灵敏度为81.3％，特异性为41.8％。结论：复发风险（包括TUG，后循环区域受累和女性）的新预测量表作为监测复发跌倒风险的工具而被提出。

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