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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences >Observed Decadal North Atlantic Tripole SST Variability. Part II: Diagnosis of Mechanisms
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Observed Decadal North Atlantic Tripole SST Variability. Part II: Diagnosis of Mechanisms

机译：观测到的年代际北大西洋Tripole SST变异性。第二部分：机制诊断

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In Part I of this study, the atmospheric weather noise for 1951-2000 was inferred from an atmospheric analysis in conjunction with SST-forced AGCM simulations and used to force interactive ensemble coupled GCM simulations of the North Atlantic SST variability. Here, results from those calculations are used in conjunction with a simple stochastically forced coupled model of the decadal time scale North Atlantic tripole SST variability to examine the mechanisms associated with the tripole SST variability. The diagnosed tripole variability is found to be characterized by damped, delayed oscillator dynamics, similar to what has been found by other investigators. However, major differences here, affecting the signs of two of the crucial parameters of the simple model, are that the atmospheric heat flux feedback damps the tripole pattern and that a counter-clockwise intergyre gyre-like circulation enhances the tripole pattern. Delayed oscillator dynamics are still obtained because the sign of the dynamically important parameter, proportional to the product of these two parameters, is unchanged. Another difference with regard to the dynamical processes included in the simple model is that the major contribution to the ocean's dynamical heat flux response to the weather noise wind stress is through a delayed modulation of the mean gyres, rather than from the simultaneous intergyre gyre response. The power spectrum of a revised simple model forced by white noise has a less prominent decadal peak using the parameter values and dynamics diagnosed here than in previous investigations. Decadal time scale retrospective predictions made with this version of the simple model are no better than persistence.
机译：在本研究的第一部分中，从大气分析与SST强迫的AGCM模拟一起推断了1951-2000年的大气天气噪声，并用于对北大西洋SST变异性进行交互式整体耦合GCM模拟。在这里，这些计算的结果与十年时间尺度北大西洋三极SST变异性的简单随机强迫耦合模型一起使用，以检查与三极SST变异性相关的机制。发现三脚形变异性具有阻尼，延迟的振荡器动力学特征，这与其他研究人员的发现相似。但是，这里的主要差异影响了简单模型中两个关键参数的符号，这是大气热通量反馈抑制了三脚架模式，而逆时针旋涡式回旋状循环增强了三脚架模式。由于动态重要参数的正负与这两个参数的乘积成比例，因此仍可获得延迟的振荡器动力学。关于简单模型中包含的动力过程的另一个差异是，海洋对天气噪声风应力的动力热通量响应的主要贡献是通过平均回旋的延迟调制，而不是同时回旋的回旋。与以前的研究相比，使用此处诊断的参数值和动力学，经过白噪声强制修改的简单模型的功率谱具有不太明显的十年峰值。使用此简单模型版本进行的十进制时间尺度回顾性预测并不比持久性好。

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