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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences >Low-Frequency Climate Response and Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorems: Theory and Practice
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Low-Frequency Climate Response and Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorems: Theory and Practice

机译：低频气候响应和波动耗散定理：理论与实践

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摘要

The low-frequency response to changes in external forcing or other parameters for various components of the climate system is a central problem of contemporary climate change science. The fluctuation dissipation theorem (FDT) is an attractive way to assess climate change by utilizing statistics of the present climate; with systematic approximations, it has been shown recently to have high skill for suitable regimes of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Further applications of FDT to low-frequency climate response require improved approximations for FDT on a reduced subspace of resolved variables. Here, systematic mathematical principles are utilized to develop new FDT approximations on reduced subspaces and to assess the small yet significant departures from Gaussianity in low-frequency variables on the FDT response. Simplified test models mimicking crucial features in GCMs are utilized here to elucidate these issues and various FDT approximations in an unambiguous fashion. Also, the shortcomings of alternative ad hoc procedures for FDT in the recent literature are discussed here. In particular, it is shown that linear regression stochastic models for the FDT response always have no skill for a general nonlinear system for the variance response and can have poor or moderate skill for the mean response depending on the regime of the Lorenz 40-model and the details of the regression strategy. New nonlinear stochastic FDT approximations for a reduced set of variables are introduced here with significant skill in capturing the effect of subtle departures from Gaussianity in the low-frequency response for a reduced set of variables.
机译：对气候系统各个组成部分的外部强迫或其他参数变化的低频响应是当代气候变化科学的中心问题。波动耗散定理（FDT）是利用当前气候的统计数据评估气候变化的一种有吸引力的方法。通过系统的近似，最近显示出对大气一般循环模型（GCM）的合适方案具有很高的技能。 FDT在低频气候响应中的进一步应用需要在解析变量的较小子空间上改进FDT近似值。在这里，系统的数学原理被用来在缩小的子空间上开发新的FDT近似值，并评估FDT响应上低频变量与高斯的微小但显着的偏离。此处采用模仿GCM关键特征的简化测试模型来明确阐明这些问题以及各种FDT近似值。同样，这里讨论了最近文献中替代的FDT临时程序的缺点。尤其是，它表明，根据Lorenz 40模型和模型的不同，用于FDT响应的线性回归随机模型始终不具备用于方差响应的通用非线性系统的技能，对于平均响应具有较差或中等的技能。回归策略的详细信息。在此介绍了用于一组减少的变量的新的非线性随机FDT近似值，该技术具有显着的技巧，可以捕捉到对于一组减少的变量的低频响应中高斯性的微小偏离的影响。

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