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The impact of group lending in Northeast Thailand

机译：团体贷款在泰国东北部的影响

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摘要

Much of the literature on group lending focuses on its high repayment rates rather than its goal of promoting borrower welfare. Most studies that attempt to measure the impact of group lending neglect the issues of self-selection and endogenous program placement, thus leading to biased estimates of impact. One reason for this neglect is the lack of data that would allow for identification of impact. This paper surmounts these problems by using data from a quasi-experiment conducted in Northeast Thailand in 1995-1996. Program participants were identified in six control villages 1 year prior to receiving loans. Surveys were then conducted of these "control" members, "treatment" members in eight older program villages, and nonmembers in both types of village. This survey design allows for straightforward estimation of impact. The results indicate that program loans are having little impact although "naive" estimates of impact that fail to account for self-selection and endogenous program placement significantly overestimate impact.
机译：有关团体贷款的许多文献都集中在其高还款率上，而不是其促进借款人福利的目标。大多数试图衡量团体贷款的影响的研究都忽略了自我选择和内生计划放置的问题，因此导致对影响的估计存在偏差。忽视这一因素的一个原因是缺乏能够确定影响的数据。本文通过使用1995-1996年在泰国东北部进行的一次准实验数据来解决这些问题。在获得贷款之前的一年，在六个控制村中确定了计划参与者。然后对这些“控制”成员，八个较旧的计划村庄中的“治疗”成员以及两种类型的村庄中的非成员进行了调查。此调查设计可直接估算影响。结果表明，尽管“天真”的影响评估未能说明自我选择和内生的计划布局，但计划贷款收效甚微，但高估了影响。

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