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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Development Economics >Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939
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Winners and losers in the commodity lottery: The impact of terms of trade growth and volatility in the Periphery 1870-1939

机译：商品彩票的赢家和输家：外围贸易条件的增长和波动的影响1870-1939年

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摘要

Most countries in the periphery specialized in the export of just a handful of primary products for most of their history. Some of these commodities have been more price volatile than others, and those with more volatility have grown much more slowlyrelative to the industrial leaders and to other primary product exporters. This fact helps explain the growth puzzle noted by Easterly, Kremer, Pritchett and Summers more than a decade ago: that the contending fundamental determinants of growth — institutions, geography and culture — exhibit far more persistence than do the growth rates they are supposed to explain. Using a new panel database for 35 countries, this paper estimates the impact of terms of trade volatility and secular change on country performance between 1870 and 1939. Volatility was much more important for growth than was secular change and accounts for a substantial degree of the divergence in incomes within the sample of small, commodity-dependent 'Periphery' nations as well as under-performance of the Periphery as a whole relative to such nations as the US and Western Europe, or 'Core'. One channel of impact seems to be the adverse effect of volatility on foreign investment. It appears that the terms of trade effects were asymmetric between Core and Periphery.
机译：周边大多数国家/地区在其大部分历史中仅专门出口少数几种初级产品。这些商品中的一些比其他商品价格波动更大，而波动性更大的商品相对于工业领导者和其他初级产品出口商的增长则要慢得多。这一事实有助于解释伊斯特利，克雷默，普里切特和萨默斯在十多年前提出的增长难题：竞争的根本性决定因素-制度，地理和文化-表现出的持久性远远超过其应解释的增长率。本文使用一个针对35个国家的新的面板数据库，估计了1870年至1939年间贸易波动和长期变化条件对国家绩效的影响。波动率对增长的影响比长期变化更为重要，并说明了很大程度上的差异相对于美国和西欧（或“核心”）等国家/地区而言，这些收入来自与商品相关的小型“外围国家”的样本，以及整个外围国家/地区的绩效不佳。影响的一种渠道似乎是波动对外国投资的不利影响。贸易条件的影响似乎在核心和外围之间是不对称的。

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