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Verifying exchange rate regimes

机译：验证汇率制度

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Credibility and transparency are at the core of the current debate on exchange rate regimes. Among the reasons why intermediate regimes have fallen out of favor, a possibly important one is that they are not transparent: it is difficult to verify them. This paper investigates how difficult it is for investors to verify from observable data if the authorities are in fact following the exchange rate regime that they claim to be following. Of the various intermediate regimes, we focus on the case of basket pegs with bands. Statistically, it can take a surprisingly long span of data for an econometrician or an investor to verify whether such a regime is actually in operation. We find that verification becomes more difficult as the regime's bands widenand/or more currencies enter in the basket peg. At the other extreme, we also analyze regimes announced as free-floating, and find that in some cases the observed exchange rate data are consistent with the announced regime.
机译：可信度和透明度是当前有关汇率制度辩论的核心。在中间政权失宠的原因中，一个可能重要的原因是中间政权不透明：很难对其进行核实。本文研究了如果当局实际上遵循了他们声称遵循的汇率制度，那么从可观察的数据进行验证的投资者是多么困难。在各种中间制度中，我们重点研究带状篮子钉的情况。从统计学上讲，计量经济学家或投资者可能要花费惊人的长时间才能验证这种制度是否确实在起作用。我们发现随着政权范围扩大和/或更多货币进入篮子挂钩，核查变得更加困难。在另一个极端，我们还分析了宣布为自由浮动的制度，并发现在某些情况下观察到的汇率数据与宣布的制度一致。

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