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Impact assessment of recent climate change on rice yields in the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China.

机译:东北黑龙江垦区近期气候变化对水稻产量的影响评估。

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Background: Investigating the degree to which climate change may have impacted on rice yields can provide an insight into how to adapt to climate change in the future. Meteorological and rice yield data over the period 1960-2009 from the Heilongjiang Reclamation Area of north-east China (HRANC) were used to explore the possible impacts of climate change on rice yields at sub-regional scale. Results: Results showed that a warming trend was obvious in the HRANC and discernible climate fluctuations and yield variations on inter-annual scale were detected to have occurred in the 1980 s and 1990 s, respectively. Statistically positive correlation was observed between growing season temperature and rice yields, with an increase rate by approximately 3.60% for each 1 degrees C rise in the minimum temperature during growing season. Such findings are consistent with the current mainstream view that warming climate may exert positive impacts on crop yields in the middle and higher latitude regions. Conclusion: Our study indicated that the growing season minimum temperature was a major driver of all the climatic factors to the recent increase trends in rice yield in HRANC over the last five decades.
机译:背景:调查气候变化可能对水稻单产产生的影响程度可以提供有关未来如何适应气候变化的见识。利用中国东北黑龙江垦区(HRANC)1960-2009年的气象和水稻产量数据,研究了气候变化对次区域规模水稻产量的可能影响。结果:结果表明,HRANC的变暖趋势很明显,并且分别在1980年代和1990年代发现了明显的气候波动和年际尺度上的产量变化。在生长季节的温度和水稻产量之间观察到统计学上的正相关,生长季节中最低温度每升高1摄氏度,增长率大约为3.60%。这些发现与当前主流观点一致,即气候变暖可能对中高纬度地区的农作物产量产生积极影响。结论:我们的研究表明,生长季节的最低温度是过去五十年来HRANC水稻产量近期增长趋势的所有气候因素的主要驱动力。

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