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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >Revisited Measles and Chickenpox Dynamics through Orthogonal Transformation
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Revisited Measles and Chickenpox Dynamics through Orthogonal Transformation

机译：通过正交变换再探麻疹和水痘的动态

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The question addressed is whether or not childhood epidemics such as measles and chickenpox are characterized by low-dimensional chaos. We propose a new method for the detection and extraction of hidden periodic components embedded in an irregular cyclical series, and study the characterization of the epidemiological series in terms of the characteristic features or periodicity attributes of the extracted components. It is shown that the measles series possesses two periodic components each having a period of one year. Both the periodic components have time-varying pattern, and the process is nonlinear and deterministic; there is no evidence of strong chaoticity in the measles dynamics. The chickenpox series has one seasonal component with stable pattern, and the process is deterministic but linear, and hence non-chaotic. We also propose surrogate generators based on null hypotheses relating to the variability of the periodicity attributes to analyse the dynamics in the epidemic series. The process dynamics is also studied using seasonally forced SEIR epidemic model, and the characterization performance of the proposed schemes is assessed.
机译：解决的问题是，诸如麻疹和水痘之类的儿童流行病是否具有低维混乱的特征。我们提出了一种检测和提取不规则周期性序列中隐藏的周期性成分的新方法，并根据所提取成分的特征或周期性属性来研究流行病学序列的特征。结果表明，麻疹系列有两个周期性的成分，每个成分的周期为一年。两个周期分量都具有时变模式，并且该过程是非线性的和确定性的。没有证据表明麻疹的动力学表现出强烈的混沌性。水痘系列具有一个季节性因素，具有稳定的模式，该过程是确定性的但线性的，因此是非混沌的。我们还提出了基于零假设的替代生成器，该零假设与周期性属性的可变性有关，以分析流行序列中的动态。还使用季节性强制SEIR流行病模型研究了过程动力学，并评估了所提出方案的表征性能。

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