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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >Cultural evolution of a belief controlling human mate choice: Dynamic modeling of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan
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Cultural evolution of a belief controlling human mate choice: Dynamic modeling of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan

机译：一种控制人类伴侣选择的信念的文化演变：日本对hinoeuma迷信的动态建模

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We develop a simple cultural dynamics model to dicuss the spread of the hinoeuma superstition in Japan. A large drop in the number of newborn babies observed in 1966 was attributed mainly to parents' avoiding having a child born in a hinoeuma year. Presumably, Japanese parents were afraid that a daughter born in 1966 (a hinoeuma year) might later have difficulty finding a mate. We construct mathematical models to examine whether the hinoeuma superstition would likely become extinct or be stably maintained in the population. We classify members of a population according to whether they believed the hinoeuma superstition (believer or nonbeliever), their gender (male or female), and their year of birth (born in a hinoeuma year or not). We compare several cases that differ according to (1) whether the belief in the superstition was transmitted to children by matrilineal, patrilineal, or Mendelian inheritance; (2) which parent controlled the timing of pregnancy and childbirth (maternal or paternal birth control); and (3) the probability of birth control failure. Our results show that the hinoeuma superstition is likely to spread if the mother has a strong influence on birth control and on the belief of their children. In contrast, if birth control is paternal and the belief is passed down from father to child, the hinoeuma superstition is likely to become extinct. In between these extremes, whether the superstition becomes extinct or fixed in the population depends on the initial frequency of believers in the population.
机译：我们开发了一种简单的文化动力学模型来抑制日本的日向迷信的传播。 1966年观察到的新生婴儿数量大幅下降的主要原因是父母避免在hinoeuma年出生孩子。据推测，日本父母担心生于1966年（一羽新蒲年）的女儿以后可能很难找到配偶。我们构建数学模型，以检验人口中是否存在虫虫迷信的灭绝或稳定的存在。我们根据人口成员是否信奉信奉迷信（信奉或不信奉），性别（男性或女性）和出生年份（是否信奉信奉的年份）对人群进行分类。我们比较了以下几种不同的情况：（1）迷信的信仰是通过母系，父系还是孟德尔遗传传给孩子的; （2）哪个父母控制了怀孕和分娩的时间（母亲或父亲的生育控制）; （3）避孕失败的可能性。我们的研究结果表明，如果母亲对节育和孩子的信仰产生强烈影响，则可能会加剧鸡毛虫的迷信。相反，如果节育是父系的，并且信念从父亲传给孩子，那么对小鸟的迷信很可能会灭绝。在这两种极端之间，迷信在人群中是灭绝还是固定取决于人群中信徒的最初出现频率。

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