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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >A Model for Estimating Total Parasite Load in Falciparum Malaria Patients.
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A Model for Estimating Total Parasite Load in Falciparum Malaria Patients.

机译：恶性疟疾患者总寄生虫负荷估算模型。

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We describe an age-structured mathematical model of the malaria parasite life cycle that uses clinical observations of peripheral parasitaemia to estimate population dynamics of sequestered parasites, which are hidden from the clinical investigator. First, the model was tested on parasite populations cultured in vitro, and was found to account for approximately 72% of the variation in that sub-population of parasites that would have been sequestered in vivo. Next, the model was applied to patients undergoing antimalarial therapy. Using individual data sets we found that although the model fitted the peripheral parasite curves very well, unique solutions for the fit could not be obtained; therefore, robust estimates of sequestered parasite dynamics remained unavailable. We conclude that even given detailed data on individual parasitaemia, estimates of sequestered numbers may be difficult to obtain. However, if data on individuals undergoing similar therapy are collected at equal time intervals, some of these problems may be overcome by estimating specific parameters over groups of patients. In this manner we estimated sequestered parasite density in a group of patients sampled at identical time points following antimalarial treatment. Using this approach we found significant relationships between changes in parasite density, age structure and temperature that were not apparent from the analysis of peripheral parasitaemia only.
机译：我们描述了一种疟疾寄生虫生命周期的年龄结构数学模型，该模型使用外围寄生虫血症的临床观察来估计被隔离的寄生虫的种群动态，这是临床研究者所不知道的。首先，在体外培养的寄生虫种群上测试了该模型，发现该模型大约占体内被隔离的寄生虫亚群变异的72％。接下来，将该模型应用于接受抗疟疾治疗的患者。使用单独的数据集，我们发现尽管模型很好地拟合了外围寄生曲线，但是无法获得拟合的唯一解;因此，仍无法获得对隔离的寄生虫动力学的可靠估计。我们得出的结论是，即使给出了有关个人寄生虫病的详细数据，也可能难以获得隔离数量的估计值。但是，如果以相等的时间间隔收集有关接受类似治疗的个体的数据，则可以通过估计患者组中的特定参数来克服其中一些问题。通过这种方式，我们估计了抗疟疾治疗后在相同时间点采样的一组患者的隔离寄生虫密度。使用这种方法，我们发现寄生虫密度，年龄结构和温度变化之间的重要关系，仅从外围寄生虫血症的分析中并没有明显的关系。

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