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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >A network model of E. coli O157 transmission within a typical UK dairy herd: the effect of heterogeneity and clustering on the prevalence of infection.
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A network model of E. coli O157 transmission within a typical UK dairy herd: the effect of heterogeneity and clustering on the prevalence of infection.

机译：英国典型奶牛场内大肠杆菌O157传播的网络模型：异质性和聚类对感染流行的影响。

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Cattle are considered to be the main reservoir for Vero cytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) O157, a cause of food-poisoning (and even death) in humans. Here, the transmission of E. coli O157 within a typical UK dairy herd is modelled using a semi-stochastic network model. The model incorporates demographic as well as infection processes. Indirect transmission is modelled homogeneously, while direct transmission is modelled via a dynamic contact network. The aim was to investigate the effects of heterogeneity and clustering on the prevalence of infection within the herd and discover whether, particularly in terms of choosing an intervention strategy, it is necessary to include heterogeneity in direct contacts when modelling this sort of system. Results show that heterogeneity in direct contacts can make it more difficult for the pathogen to persist, particularly when the average number of contacts (per animal) in each group is small. They also show that the relationship between clustering and prevalence is not simple. For example, increasing the average number of contacts can increase clustering and prevalence. However, when the average number of contacts in each group is sufficiently high, higher clustering leads to lower prevalence. It would seem that clustering can aid the flow of infection under certain circumstances, but hinder it under others (probably by preventing wider dissemination). Further results show that indirect transmission (as it is modelled here) effectively removes the effect of heterogeneity in direct contacts. In terms of investigating proposed interventions, the results suggest that a network model would only be required if there was evidence to suggest that direct transmission was the major source of infection.
机译：牛被认为是产生Vero细胞毒素的大肠杆菌（VTEC）O157的主要储存库，这是导致人类食物中毒（甚至死亡）的原因。在此，使用半随机网络模型对典型英国奶牛场中大肠杆菌O157的传播进行了建模。该模型结合了人口统计和感染过程。间接传输是均匀建模的，而直接传输是通过动态接触网络建模的。目的是研究异质性和集群性对畜群内感染率的影响，并发现在对此类系统进行建模时，是否特别是在选择干预策略方面，是否有必要在直接接触中纳入异质性。结果表明，直接接触中的异质性会使病原体更加难以持久，特别是当每组（每只动物）的平均接触数较小时。他们还表明，聚类和患病率之间的关系并不简单。例如，增加联系人的平均数量可以增加聚类和患病率。但是，当每个组中的平均联系数足够高时，较高的聚类会导致较低的患病率。在某些情况下，群集似乎可以帮助感染的传播，但在其他情况下则可以阻止感染（可能是通过阻止更广泛的传播）。进一步的结果表明，间接传输（如此处建模）可以有效消除直接接触中异质性的影响。在调查拟议的干预措施方面，结果表明，只有在有证据表明直接传播是主要感染源的情况下才需要网络模型。

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