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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics.
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Influence of infection rate and migration on extinction of disease in spatial epidemics.

机译:感染率和迁移对空间流行中疾病灭绝的影响。

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摘要

Extinction of disease can be explained by the patterns of epidemic spreading, yet the underlying causes of extinction are far from being well understood. To reveal a mechanism of disease extinction, a cellular automata model with both birth, death rate and migration is presented. We find that, in single patch, when the infection rate is small or large enough, the disease will disappear for a long time. When the invasion form is in the coexistence of stable spiral and turbulent wave state, the disease will persist. Also, we find that the migration has dual effects on the epidemic spreading. On one hand, in the extinction region of single patch, if the migration rate is large enough, there is a phase transition from the disease free to endemic state in two patches. On the other hand, migration will induce extinction in the regime, which can ensure the persistence of the disease in single patch, due to emergence of anti-phase synchrony. The results obtained well reveal the effect of infection rate and migration on the extinction of the disease, which enriches the finding in the filed of epidemiology and may provide some new ideas to control the disease in the real world.
机译:疾病的灭绝可以通过流行病的传播方式来解释,但是绝灭的根本原因远未得到很好的理解。为了揭示疾病灭绝的机制,提出了具有出生,死亡率和迁移的细胞自动机模型。我们发现,在单个贴片中,当感染率足够小或足够大时,该疾病将长期消失。当入侵形式同时存在稳定的螺旋和湍流波状态时,该病将持续存在。此外,我们发现迁移对流行病传播有双重影响。一方面,在单个斑块的灭绝区域中,如果迁移速率足够大,则两个斑块中会发生从无病状态到流行状态的相变。另一方面,由于逆相同步性的出现,迁移将在该方案中引起灭绝,从而可以确保疾病在单一斑块中的持久性。获得的结果很好地揭示了感染率和迁移对疾病灭绝的影响,这丰富了流行病学领域的发现,并可能为控制现实世界中的疾病提供一些新的思路。

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