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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Theoretical Biology >The control of vector-borne disease epidemics.
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The control of vector-borne disease epidemics.

机译：媒介传播疾病流行的控制。

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The theoretical underpinning of our struggle with vector-borne disease, and still our strongest tool, remains the basic reproduction number, R(0), the measure of long term endemicity. Despite its widespread application, R(0) does not address the dynamics of epidemics in a model that has an endemic equilibrium. We use the concept of reactivity to derive a threshold index for epidemicity, E(0), which gives the maximum number of new infections produced by an infective individual at a disease free equilibrium. This index describes the transitory behavior of disease following a temporary perturbation in prevalence. We demonstrate that if the threshold for epidemicity is surpassed, then an epidemic peak can occur, that is, prevalence can increase further, even when the disease is not endemic and so dies out. The relative influence of parameters on E(0) and R(0) may differ and lead to different strategies for control. We apply this new threshold index for epidemicity to models of vector-borne disease because these models have a long history of mathematical analysis and application. We find that both the transmission efficiency from hosts to vectors and the vector-host ratio may have a stronger effect on epidemicity than endemicity. The duration of the extrinsic incubation period required by the pathogen to transform an infected vector to an infectious vector, however, may have a stronger effect on endemicity than epidemicity. We use the index E(0) to examine how vector behavior affects epidemicity. We find that parasite modified behavior, feeding bias by vectors for infected hosts, and heterogeneous host attractiveness contribute significantly to transitory epidemics. We anticipate that the epidemicity index will lead to a reevaluation of control strategies for vector-borne disease and be applicable to other disease transmission models.
机译：我们与媒介传播疾病斗争的理论基础，仍然是我们最强大的工具，仍然是基本繁殖数R（0），它是长期流行性的度量。尽管R（0）得到了广泛应用，但它在具有地方病平衡的模型中并未解决流行病的动力学问题。我们使用反应性的概念来得出流行病的阈值指数E（0），该指数给出了在无病平衡时感染个体产生的新感染的最大数量。该指数描述了患病率暂时性扰动后疾病的短暂行为。我们证明，如果超过流行阈值，则可能会出现一个流行高峰，也就是说，即使该疾病不是地方性流行并因此消亡，患病率仍会进一步增加。参数对E（0）和R（0）的相对影响可能有所不同，并导致不同的控制策略。我们将这种新的流行阈值指数应用于媒介传播疾病模型，因为这些模型具有悠久的数学分析和应用历史。我们发现，从宿主到媒介的传播效率和媒介-宿主比率对流行病的影响都可能比地方病更为严重。但是，病原体将感染的载体转化为传染性载体所需的外部潜伏期的持续时间，对流行性的影响可能大于流行性。我们使用索引E（0）来检查媒介行为如何影响流行病。我们发现，寄生虫的改良行为，传染媒介对宿主感染的偏见和宿主吸引力的异质性对短暂流行具有重大影响。我们预计，流行病指数将导致对媒介传播疾病控制策略的重新评估，并适用于其他疾病传播模型。

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