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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of toxicology and environmental health, Part B. Critical reviews >Mathematical Models for Estimating the Risks of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)
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Mathematical Models for Estimating the Risks of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE)

机译：估计牛海绵状脑病（BSE）风险的数学模型

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摘要

When the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic first emerged in the United Kingdom in the mid 1980s, the etiology of animal prion diseases was largely unknown. Risk management efforts to control the disease were also subject to uncertainties regarding the extent of BSE infections and future course of the epidemic. As understanding of BSE increased, mathematical models were developed to estimate risk of BSE infection and to predict reductions in risk in response to BSE control measures. Risk models of BSE-transmission dynamics determined disease persistence in cattle herds and relative infectivity of cattle prior to onset of clinical disease. These BSE models helped in understanding key epidemiological features of BSE transmission and dynamics, such as incubation period distribution and age-dependent infection susceptibility to infection with the BSE agent. This review summarizes different mathematical models and methods that have been used to estimate risk of BSE, and discusses how such risk projection models have informed risk assessment and management of BSE. This review also provides some general insights on how mathematical models of the type discussed here may be used to estimate risks of emerging zoonotic diseases when biological data on transmission of the etiological agent are limited.
机译：当牛海绵状脑病（BSE）流行病于1980年代中期在英国首次出现时，动物病毒病的病因在很大程度上是未知的。控制疯牛病的风险管理工作也受到有关BSE感染程度和未来流行病的不确定性的影响。随着对BSE的了解的增加，开发了数学模型来估计BSE感染的风险并预测针对BSE控制措施的风险降低。疯牛病传播动态的风险模型确定了牛群在临床疾病发作之前的疾病持久性和牛的相对感染性。这些BSE模型有助于了解BSE传播和动力学的主要流行病学特征，例如潜伏期分布和年龄依赖性感染对BSE药剂感染的易感性。这篇综述总结了用于估计疯牛病风险的不同数学模型和方法，并讨论了这种风险预测模型如何为疯牛病的风险评估和管理提供依据。这篇综述还提供了一些关于在病原体传播的生物学数据有限时如何使用此处讨论的数学模型来估计新兴人畜共患疾病风险的一般见解。

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