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首页> 外文期刊>Journal of Volcanology and seismology >Correlative relationships between tsunami height and strong ground motion parameters: Japanese earthquakes
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Correlative relationships between tsunami height and strong ground motion parameters: Japanese earthquakes

机译：海啸高度与强地面运动参数之间的相关关系：日本地震

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摘要

When a large earthquake occurs off a coast, the resulting ground motion can soon be followed by the arrival of tsunami waves. This interrelationship can be useful for issuing tsunami alerts. This study aims at detecting correlative relationships between the intensity (runup) of a tsunami at a site along the coast and ground motion parameters at the same site due to the earthquake that produced the tsunami. Our estimates were derived by combining historical and instrumental data for eight sites along the Pacific coast of Japan. Our regression analysis of collected and systematized data used the tobit model, which is able to incorporate all tsunami data, including those below the tsunami-detection threshold. We show that if such tsunamis are neglected by the standard regression model, the result is to overestimate the height of predicted tsunamis. Analysis of the regression results shows that when a tsunami-generating earthquake has occurred a tsunami with runup that is equal to or greater than 50 cm should be expected if peak ground motion velocities greater than 7 cm/s have been recorded at the same site, with the probability of the failure to predict being 16%.
机译：当沿海地区发生大地震时，随之而来的地震动很快就会跟随海啸波的到来。这种相互关系对于发布海啸警报可能很有用。这项研究的目的是检测沿海地区的海啸强度（上升）与同一地点由于地震产生的海啸引起的地震动参数之间的相关关系。我们的估算是结合日本太平洋沿岸八个地点的历史数据和仪器数据得出的。我们对收集和系统化数据的回归分析使用了tobit模型，该模型能够合并所有海啸数据，包括那些低于海啸检测阈值的数据。我们显示，如果标准回归模型忽略了此类海啸，则结果将高估了预测海啸的高度。对回归结果的分析表明，如果在同一地点记录到的地震动峰值速度大于7 cm / s，那么在发生海啸引发的地震时，应预计海啸的震级等于或大于50 cm，未能预测的概率为16％。

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