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首页> 外文期刊>Journal Of The South African Institute Of Mining & Metallurgy >Frontiers of usefulness: The economics of exhaustible resources
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Frontiers of usefulness: The economics of exhaustible resources

机译：有用性的前沿：可用资源的经济学

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The influence of Harold Hotelling's work in the field of mineral economics is both unusual and outstanding. In the 66 years since its development, theory surrounding the economics of exhaustible resources has only been significantly researched since the early 1970s. At that time a wave of research into the economics of exhaustible resources arose from the threat of global resource scarcity and continued into the late 1990s. Current East Asian and global demand for natural resources as well as mineral and metal commodities, has stimulated interest in the optimal and sustainable exploitation of exhaustible resources to the point that the subject is worthy of review. Hotelling's theory and the assumptions that he made in establishing a model for the optimal exploitation of mineral resources at the industry level and at the level of the individual mine owner, are examined. He showed that the rate of increase in exhaustible resource prices should be equivalent to the market rate of interest and that in a market with rising prices the rate of extraction should be constant. In markets where demand is stable optimal exploitation requires that the rate of extraction should decline over time, while in a monopoly market he showed that the rate of extraction is retarded. In addition, the effects of cumulative production on costs and prices, the uncertainty associated with estimates of the resource stock, the impact of exploration and issues of intergenerational equity are examined. An analysis of the optimal price path, extraction costs and mineral rents at an industry level is presented as a model. An analysis of the rates of production and optimal benefits at the individual mine level including total, average and marginal costs on the optimal rate of production, is considered. Optimal extraction rates for a mine with a clearly defined concave positive cost equation vary according to the position on the marginal cost curve. The influence of discount rates and the size of the ore reserves on the rates of mineral extraction are also examined and could define the frontier of usefulness for the 'economics of exhaustible resources'.
机译：哈罗德·霍特林（Harold Hotelling）的工作在矿产经济学领域的影响力异常显着。自其发展以来的66年中，自1970年代初以来，围绕可耗尽资源经济学的理论才得到了重大研究。当时，全球资源稀缺的威胁引起了对可再生资源经济学的研究热潮，并持续到1990年代后期。当前东亚和全球对自然资源以及矿产和金属商品的需求，激发了人们对最佳和可持续利用可枯竭资源的兴趣，以至于这一问题值得审查。考察了Hotelling的理论以及他在建立行业和个体矿主水平上的矿产资源最佳开采模型时所做出的假设。他表明，可用资源价格的上涨率应等于市场利率，而在价格上涨的市场中，开采率应保持恒定。在需求稳定的市场中，最佳开采要求开采率随时间下降，而在垄断市场中，他表明开采率受阻。此外，还研究了累积生产对成本和价格的影响，与资源存量估计有关的不确定性，勘探的影响以及代际公平问题。提出了对行业最佳价格路径，开采成本和矿产租金的分析模型。考虑对单个矿山水平的生产率和最佳收益进行分析，包括最优生产率的总成本，平均成本和边际成本。具有明确定义的凹正成本方程的矿山的最佳开采率根据边际成本曲线上的位置而变化。还研究了折现率和矿石储量的大小对矿物提取率的影响，并可以确定有用资源的“可利用资源经济学”的前沿。

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