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首页> 外文期刊>Journal Of The South African Institute Of Mining & Metallurgy >Risk identification, assessment and management in the mining and metallurgical industries
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Risk identification, assessment and management in the mining and metallurgical industries

机译：采矿和冶金行业的风险识别，评估和管理

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Risk assessment consists of a search for the answers to: ? what can happen?? How likely it is that it can happen?? What are the consequences if it does happen?Perhaps the most important aim of risk analysis is to predict thelikelihood that a planned profit will be achieved over a givenperiod of time. A typical risk model employed for this purposeincludes a stochastic connection between the dependent variable ofan expression that describes a process and independent variablesrepresented as random quantities. The output will be aprobabilistic distribution.The uncertainties in a planned mining operation inculde:? Commodity market characteristics, particularly price? Ore reserves and mineralogical composition ? Mining method? Process performance ? Capital and operating costs ? Schedule duration? Economic environment effects.The processes employed in the probabilistic estimation of aproject's outcome include both Monte Carlo simulations andsimulations where variable correlation is considered important.The risk model, once developed and tested, provides aframework for a rational approach to risk analysis and the testingof alternatives.
机译：风险评估包括以下方面的答案：会发生什么？？它发生的可能性有多大？如果确实发生了后果是什么？也许风险分析的最重要的目的是预测在给定时间段内将实现计划利润的可能性。为此目的使用的典型风险模型包括描述过程的表达式的因变量与表示为随机量的自变量之间的随机联系。输出将是概率分布。计划的采矿作业中的不确定性包括：商品市场特点，特别是价格？矿石储量和矿物组成？开采方法？工艺性能？资金和运营成本？计划持续时间？经济环境影响。在对项目结果进行概率估计时采用的过程包括蒙特卡罗模拟和认为变量相关性很重要的模拟。风险模型一旦开发和测试，便为风险分析和替代方法的合理方法提供了框架。

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