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首页> 外文期刊>Journal Of The South African Institute Of Mining & Metallurgy >A real options application to manage risk related to intrinsic variables of a mine plan: a case study on Chuquicamata Underground Mine Project
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A real options application to manage risk related to intrinsic variables of a mine plan: a case study on Chuquicamata Underground Mine Project

机译：用于管理与矿山计划内在变量相关的风险的实物期权应用程序：Chuquicamata地下矿山项目的案例研究

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摘要

Traditional risk quantification methods provide little information on the sources of risk, and tend to produce static over-conservative evaluations, which do not account for changes in the performance of the project Capital investment decisions for large mining projects require more complex risk evaluation models that include the value of flexibility and the different risk levels associated with uncertainty on project variables (price, grade, dilution, and production rates, among many other). In this context, real option valuation (ROV) methods have proven potential to quantify the risk associated with such variables and integrate alternative scenarios and management strategies into the evaluation process. In this paper, a risk quantifi cation model is developed that successfully quantifies the risk associated with dilution, as a function of production rate. This model is then validated in a case study on the Chuquicamata Underground Mine project.
机译：传统的风险量化方法几乎没有提供有关风险来源的信息，并且往往会产生静态的过度保守的评估，这无法说明项目绩效的变化。大型采矿项目的资本投资决策需要更复杂的风险评估模型，其中包括灵活性的价值以及与项目变量（价格，等级，稀释度和生产率等不确定性）相关的不同风险水平。在这种情况下，实物期权评估（ROV）方法已被证明可以量化与此类变量相关的风险，并将替代方案和管理策略整合到评估过程中。在本文中，建立了风险量化模型，该模型成功地将与稀释相关的风险量化为生产率的函数。然后在Chuquicamata地下矿山项目的案例研究中验证了该模型。

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