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首页> 外文期刊>日本生气象学会杂志 >Seasonal variation in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in the Kanto area and its meteorological factors
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Seasonal variation in the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly in the Kanto area and its meteorological factors

机译：关东地区老年人肺结核发病率的季节性变化及其气象因素

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摘要

In Japan, few new cases of tuberculosis are registered during the winter, and the incidence tends to increase during summer, but few detailed statistical analyses of seasonality have been reported. In the present study, we evaluated data regarding newly registered cases of bacillus-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in patients older than 70 years and living in the Kanto district; these cases were identified through clinical examinations during 1992-1998. We obtained our information from the tuberculosis surveillance data of the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare in Japan. We evaluated seasonality and the relationship between disease onset and various meteorological factors for 2 groups within our study population, which were categorized according to the interval between the estimated onset of disease and its registration, i.e., <2 or <3 months (4117 and 5281 cases, respectively). Cyclical components with a 12-month period were most prevalent in the power spectrum analysis of the time series fluctuation in morbidity. Monthly morbidity tended to be high from June to October and was reduced during December and January, and the morbidities during summer and autumn were significantly higher than during winter. A positive correlation was observed between the morbidity, air temperature, and relative humidity when the estimated onset was 1 month before registration. In addition, morbidity and relative humidity seemed to be correlated when the onset was estimated to have occurred 2 months before registration, but the correlation coefficients were under 0.5, and the relationship between morbidity and air temperature or relative humidity was not always clear. For our elderly patients whose disease was registered <2 or <3 months after onset, morbidity began to increase in April or May, because the onset of tuberculosis is before about 1 or 1.4 months in the registered as midpoint value was estimated, respectively.
机译：在日本，冬季很少有新的肺结核病例登记，夏季期间发病率呈上升趋势，但鲜有关于季节性的详细统计分析报告。在本研究中，我们评估了居住在关东地区的70岁以上患者中新登记的细菌阳性肺结核病例的数据。这些病例是在1992-1998年间通过临床检查确定的。我们从日本厚生劳动省的结核病监测数据中获得了信息。我们评估了研究人群中两组的季节性以及疾病发作与各种气象因素之间的关系，这些疾病根据估计的疾病发作与登记之间的间隔进行分类，即<2个月或<3个月（4117和5281）情况）。在发病率时间序列波动的功率谱分析中，周期为12个月的循环成分最为普遍。从6月到10月，每月发病率往往较高，而在12月和1月，发病率有所降低，夏季和秋季的发病率明显高于冬季。当估计发病时间为登记前1个月时，在发病率，气温和相对湿度之间观察到正相关。另外，估计发病发生在登记前2个月时，发病率和相对湿度似乎相关，但相关系数在0.5以下，发病率与气温或相对湿度之间的关系并不总是很清楚。对于我们的发病年龄小于2或小于3个月的老年患者，发病率在4月或5月开始增加，因为估计结核病的发病时间大约在1或1.4个月之前，这是估计的中点值。

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