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Did humankind prevent a Holocene glaciation?

机译:人类是否阻止了全新世的冰川化?

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Recently, W.F. Ruddiman (2003, Climatic Change, Vol. 61, pp. 261-293) suggested that the anthropocene, the geological epoch of significant anthropospheric interference with the natural Earth system, has started much earlier than previously thought (P. I. Crutzen and E. F. Stoermer, 2000, IGBP Newsletter, Vol. 429, pp. 623-628). Ruddiman proposed that due to human land use, atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and CH4 began to deviate from their natural declining trends some 8000 and 5000 years ago, respectively. Furthermore, Ruddiman concluded that greenhouse gas concentrations grew anomalously thereby preventing natural large-scale glaciation of northern North America that should have occurred some 4000-5000 years ago without human interference. Here we would like to comment on (a) natural changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration during the Holocene and (b) on the possibility of a Holocene glacial inception. We substantiate our comments by modelling results which suggest that the last three interglacials are not a proper analogue for Holocene climate variations. In particular, we show that our model does not yield a glacial inception during the last several thousand years even if a declining trend in atmospheric CO2 was assumed.
机译:最近,W.F。 Ruddiman(2003,Climatic Change,Vol.61,pp.261-293)指出,人类世是人类活动对自然地球系统造成重大干扰的地质时期,它的起步时间比以前想象的要早(PI Crutzen和EF Stoermer,2000年)。 ,IGBP新闻通讯,第429卷,第623-628页)。 Ruddiman提出,由于人类土地的使用,大气中的CO2和CH4浓度分别偏离了大约8000和5000年前的自然下降趋势。此外,Ruddiman得出结论,温室气体浓度反常增长,从而防止了北美洲北部自然大范围的冰川形成,而这本来应该在4000-5000年前发生而没有人为干预。在这里,我们想评论一下(a)全新世期间大气中CO2浓度的自然变化,以及(b)全新世冰川开始的可能性。我们通过对结果进行建模来证实我们的意见,这些结果表明最后三个间冰期不是全新世气候变化的适当类似物。特别是,我们表明即使假设大气中CO2呈下降趋势,我们的模型在过去的几千年中也没有产生冰期现象。

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