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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >What determines farmers' resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia
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What determines farmers' resilience towards ENSO-related drought? An empirical assessment in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

机译：是什么决定了农民对ENSO相关干旱的抵御能力？印度尼西亚中苏拉威西省的实证评估

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摘要

Crop production in the tropics is subject to considerable climate variability caused by the El Niclo-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon that is likely to become even more pronounced during the twenty-first century. Little is known about the impact of ENSO-related drought on crop yields and food security, especially at the household level. This paper seeks to contribute to closing this knowledge gap with a case study from Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Its main objective is to measure household resilience towards drought periods and to identify its influencing factors to deduce policy implications. Using indicators for consumption expenditures, we construct an index measuring household drought resilience; we then apply an asset-based livelihood framework to identify its determinants. Most of the drought-affected farm households are forced to substantially reduce expenditures for food and other basic necessities. Households' drought resilience is strengthened by the possession of liquid assets, access to credit, and the level of technical efficiency in agricultural production. The results suggest a number of policy recommendations, namely improvement of the farmers' access to ENSO forecasts, the provision of credit and savings products to facilitate consumption smoothing, and the intensification of agricultural extension in view of low levels of productivity found in agricultural production.
机译：热带地区的农作物生产受到El Niclo-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）现象的影响，气候变化很大，这种现象在二十一世纪可能会变得更加明显。关于ENSO相关干旱对作物产量和粮食安全的影响知之甚少，特别是在家庭一级。本文力图通过印度尼西亚中部苏拉威西岛的案例研究为弥补这一知识鸿沟做出贡献。其主要目标是衡量家庭对干旱时期的抵御能力，并确定其影响因素以推论政策含义。利用消费支出指标，我们构建了衡量家庭抗旱能力的指标;然后，我们应用基于资产的生计框架来确定其决定因素。大多数受干旱影响的农户被迫大幅减少食品和其他基本必需品的支出。拥有流动资产，获得信贷以及农业生产的技术效率水平提高了家庭的抗旱能力。结果表明提出了一系列政策建议，即改善农民获得ENSO预报的渠道，提供信贷和储蓄产品以促进消费平稳，以及由于农业生产生产率低下而加剧了农业扩张。

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