...
  • 主题
高级搜索  >
历史搜索 清空历史
首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >The uncertain value of perfect ENSO phase forecasts: stochastic agricultural prices and intra-phase climatic variations.
【24h】

The uncertain value of perfect ENSO phase forecasts: stochastic agricultural prices and intra-phase climatic variations.

机译：理想的ENSO阶段预报的不确定价值：随机农产品价格和阶段内气候变化。

获取原文
获取原文并翻译 | 示例
           
页面导航
  • 摘要
  • 著录项
  • 相似文献
  • 相关主题

摘要

Climate and crop yield variability associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are now predictable within limits. This predictability suggests a potential to tailor agricultural management to mitigate impacts of adverse conditions and to take advantage of favourable conditions. However, improved climate predictions may benefit society only with parallel advances in our ability to use this knowledge. We show that the value that will accrue to any given actor from an ENSO phase forecast should be viewed not as a known number but instead as a random draw from a distribution, even when the forecast is always correct. Forecast value depends on the highly variable contexts in which forecasts are used. Randomness in forecast value has significant implications for choices made by forecasters, forecast users and policy makers. To show randomness, we estimate potential economic values of ENSO forecasts for agricultural producers in Pergamino, Argentina, based on two realistic assumptions: the crop prices farmers receive are uncertain; and within an ENSO phase, the actual climate is variable in ways that affect profits. The use of synthetic weather and crop price series, with crop simulation models, helps show the range and likelihood of climate forecast value..
机译：与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）相关的气候和农作物单产变化现在可以在限定范围内预测。这种可预测性表明，有可能对农业管理进行调整，以减轻不利条件的影响并利用有利条件。但是，改进的气候预测只有在我们利用这些知识的能力上同时取得进步时，才能使社会受益。我们表明，即使预测总是正确的，也不应将ENSO阶段预测中任何给定参与者的值视为已知数字，而是从分布中随机抽取。预测值取决于使用预测的高度可变的上下文。预测值的随机性对预测者，预测用户和决策者的选择具有重大影响。为了显示随机性，我们基于两个现实的假设估算了阿根廷Pergamino农业生产者ENSO预测的潜在经济价值：农民获得的农作物价格不确定;在ENSO阶段，实际气候会以影响利润的方式变化。使用合成天气和作物价格序列以及作物模拟模型，有助于显示气候预测值的范围和可能性。

著录项

相似文献

  • 外文文献
  • 中文文献
  • 专利
获取原文

客服邮箱：kefu@zhangqiaokeyan.com

京公网安备：11010802029741号 ICP备案号：京ICP备15016152号-6 六维联合信息科技 (北京) 有限公司©版权所有

  • 客服微信

  • 服务号