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Simplified method for scenario-based risk assessment adaptation planning in the coastal zone.

机译：沿海地区基于情景的风险评估适应计划的简化方法。

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摘要

The development of successful coastal adaptation strategies for both the built and natural environments requires combining scenarios of climate change and socio-economic conditions, and risk assessment. Such planning needs to consider the adaptation costs and residual damages over time that may occur given a range of possible storm conditions for any given sea level rise scenario. Using the metric of the expected value of annual adaptation costs and residual damages, or another metric that can be related to the elevation of flooding, a simplified method to carry this out is presented. The approach relies upon developing damage-flooding depth probability exceedance curves for various scenarios over a given planning period and determining the areas under the curves. While the approach does have limitations, it is less complex to implement than using Monte Carlo simulation approaches and may be more intuitive to decision makers. A case study in Maine, USA is carried out to illustrate the method.
机译：要针对建筑环境和自然环境制定成功的沿海适应策略，就需要将气候变化和社会经济状况以及风险评估结合起来。对于任何给定的海平面上升情况，在一定范围的暴风雨条件下，此类规划都需要考虑适应成本和随时间推移可能产生的残余损害。使用年度适应成本和剩余损害的期望值的度量标准，或与洪水高程相关的另一种度量标准，提出了一种简化的方法来实现这一目标。该方法依赖于在给定的计划周期内针对各种场景开发破坏淹没深度概率超过曲线，并确定曲线下的面积。尽管该方法确实有局限性，但实现起来却比使用蒙特卡洛模拟方法复杂得多，并且对于决策者而言可能更直观。在美国缅因州进行了案例研究以说明该方法。

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