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A transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 for climate information providers: the case of surface temperature over eastern North America

机译：气候信息提供者从CMIP3过渡到CMIP5：北美东部地区的地表温度案例

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The release of new data constituting the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-Phase 5 (CMIP5) database is an important event in both climate science and climate services issues. Although users' eagerness for a fast transition from CMIP3 to CMIP5 is expected, this change implies some challenges for climate information providers. The main reason is that the two sets of experiments were performed in different ways regarding radiative forcing and hence continuity between both datasets is partially lost. The objective of this research is to evaluate a metric that is independent of the amount and the evolution of radiative forcing, hence facilitating comparison between the two sets for surface temperature over eastern North America. The link between CMIP3 and CMIP5 data sets is explored spatially and locally (using the ratio of local to global temperatures) through the use of regional warming patterns, a relationship between the grid-box and the global mean temperature change for a certain time frame. Here, we show that local to global ratios are effective tools in making climate change information between the two sets comparable. As a response to the global mean temperature change, both CMIP experiments show very similar warming patterns, trends, and climate change uncertainty for both winter and summer. Sensitivity of the models to radiative forcing is not assessed. Real inter-model differences remain the largest source of uncertainty when calculating warming patterns as well as spatially-based patterns for the pattern scaling approach. This relationship between the datasets, which may escape users when they are provided with a single radiative forcing pathway, needs to be stressed by climate information providers.
机译：构成耦合模型比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）数据库的新数据的发布是气候科学和气候服务问题中的重要事件。尽管预计用户渴望从CMIP3迅速过渡到CMIP5，但这种变化对气候信息提供者提出了一些挑战。主要原因是两组实验以关于辐射强迫的不同方式执行，因此两个数据集之间的连续性部分丢失。这项研究的目的是评估一个独立于辐射强迫的数量和演变的度量，从而促进在北美东部的两组表面温度之间进行比较。 CMIP3和CMIP5数据集之间的联系通过使用区域变暖模式，特定时间范围内的网格箱与全球平均温度变化之间的关系，在空间和局部范围内（使用局部温度与全球温度的比率）进行了研究。在这里，我们表明，本地与全球比率是使两组之间的气候变化信息具有可比性的有效工具。作为对全球平均温度变化的响应，两个CMIP实验均显示出非常相似的冬季和夏季变暖模式，趋势和气候变化不确定性。没有评估模型对辐射强迫的敏感性。在计算变暖模式以及模式缩放方法的基于空间的模式时，实际的模型间差异仍然是不确定性的最大来源。气候信息提供者需要强调数据集之间的这种关系，当为它们提供单一辐射强迫路径时可能使用户逃脱。

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