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首页> 外文期刊>Climatic Change >Future hurricane storm surge risk for the US gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity
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Future hurricane storm surge risk for the US gulf and Florida coasts based on projections of thermodynamic potential intensity

机译：根据热力学势强度的预测，美国海湾和佛罗里达州海岸未来的飓风风暴潮风险

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Coastal populations in the global tropics and sub-tropics are vulnerable to the devastating impacts of hurricane storm surge and this risk is only expected to rise under climate change. In this study, we address this issue for the U.S. Gulf and Florida coasts. Using the framework of Potential Intensity, observations and output from coupled climate models, we show that the future large-scale thermodynamic environment may become more favorable for hurricane intensification. Under the RCP 4.5 emissions scenario and for the peak hurricane season months of August-October, we show that the mean intensities of Atlantic hurricanes may increase by 1.8-4.2 % and their lifetime maximum intensities may increase by 2.7-5.3 % when comparing the last two decades of the 20th and 21st centuries. We then combine our estimates of hurricane intensity changes with projections of sea-level rise to understand their relative impacts on future storm surge using simulations with the National Weather Service's SLOSH (Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes) model for five historical hurricanes that made landfall in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. Considering uncertainty in hurricane intensity changes and sea-level rise, our results indicate a median increase in storm surge ranging between 25 and 47 %, with changes in hurricane intensity increasing future storm surge by about 10 % relative to the increase that may result from sea level rise alone, with highly non-linear response of population at risk.
机译：全球热带和亚热带的沿海人口很容易受到飓风风暴潮的毁灭性影响，预计这种风险只会在气候变化下上升。在这项研究中，我们针对美国墨西哥湾和佛罗里达州沿海地区解决此问题。使用潜在强度的框架，观测和耦合气候模型的输出，我们表明，未来的大规模热力学环境可能对飓风的强化更为有利。在RCP 4.5排放情景下以及八月至十月的飓风旺季高峰期，我们显示，与上一次相比，大西洋飓风的平均强度可能会增加1.8-4.2％，而它们的生命最大强度可能会增加2.7-5.3％。 20世纪和21世纪的二十年。然后，我们将飓风强度变化的估计值与海平面上升的预测值结合起来，使用美国国家气象局的SLOSH（飓风造成的海，湖和陆上涌浪）模型进行模拟，以了解它们对未来风暴潮的相对影响，该模型对五种历史飓风进行了分析，在墨西哥湾和佛罗里达登陆。考虑到飓风强度变化和海平面上升的不确定性，我们的结果表明风暴潮的中位数增长在25％至47％之间，而飓风强度的变化使未来的风暴潮相对于海上可能造成的增长增加了约10％单单水平上升，高风险人群的非线性响应。

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