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Sensitivity analysis of snow cover to climate change scenarios and their impact on plant habitats in alpine terrain.

机译:积雪对气候变化情景的敏感性分析及其对高山地形中植物栖息地的影响。

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In high altitude areas snow cover duration largely determines the length of the growing season of the vegetation. A sensitivity study of snow cover to various scenarios of temperature and precipitation has been conducted to assess how snow cover and vegetation may respond for a very localized area of the high Swiss Alps (2050-2500 m above sea level). A surface energy balance model has been upgraded to compute snow depth and duration, taking into account solar radiation geometry over complex topography. Plant habitat zones have been defined and 23 species, whose photoperiodic preferences were documented in an earlier study, were grouped into each zone. The sensitivity of snowmelt to a change in mean, minimum and maximum temperature alone and a change in mean temperature combined with a precipitation change of +10% in winter and -10% in summer is investigated. A seasonal increase in the mean temperature of 3 to 5 K reduces snow cover depth and duration by more than a month on average. Snow melts two months earlier in the rock habitat zone with the mean temperature scenario than under current climate conditions. This allows the species in this habitat to flower earlier in a warmer climate, but not all plants are able to adapt to such changes..
机译:在高海拔地区,积雪持续时间在很大程度上决定了植被生长季节的长度。已经进行了对积雪对各种温度和降水情景的敏感性研究,以评估积雪和植被对瑞士阿尔卑斯山局部地区(海拔2050-2500 m)的响应方式。考虑到复杂地形上太阳辐射的几何形状,已经升级了表面能平衡模型以计算积雪深度和持续时间。已经定义了植物栖息地区域,并将在早期研究中记录了其光周期偏好的23种物种分为每个区域。研究了融雪对平均温度,最低和最高温度的变化以及冬季平均降水量与冬季降水量分别增加+ 10%和夏季-10%的敏感性。季节性平均温度升高3至5 K,平均降雪深度和持续时间会减少一个月以上。与当前气候条件相比,平均温度情景下的岩石栖息地融雪要早两个月。这样可以使该栖息地中的物种在温暖的气候下更早地开花,但并非所有植物都能适应这种变化。

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