Sea-level change: The expected economic cost of protection or abandonmentin the United States

Yohe GW.; Schlesinger ME.

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Sea-level change: The expected economic cost of protection or abandonmentin the United States

机译：海平面变化：在美国受到保护或放弃的预期经济成本

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Three distinct models from earlier work are combined to: (1) produce probabilistically weighted scenarios of greenhouse-gas-induced sea-level rise; (2) support estimates of the expected discounted value of the cost of sea-level rise to the developed coastline of the United States, and (3) develop reduced-form estimates of the functional relationship between those costs to anticipated sea-level rise, the cost of protection, and the anticipated rate of property-value appreciation, Four alternative representations of future sulfate emissions, each tied consistently to the forces that drive the initial trajectories of the greenhouse gases, are considered. Sea-level rise has a nonlinear effect on expected cost in all cases, bur the estimated sensitivity falls short of being quadratic. The mean estimate for the expected discounted cost across the United States is approximately

机译：将早期工作中的三个不同模型组合在一起：（1）产生温室气体引起的海平面上升的概率加权方案; （2）对美国发达海岸线的海平面上升成本的预期折现值的支持估计，以及（3）对这些成本与预期的海平面上升之间的函数关系进行简化的估计，保护成本，预期的财产价值增值率，未来硫酸盐排放量的四种替代表示形式，均与驱动温室气体初始轨迹的力始终相关。在所有情况下，海平面上升都会对预期成本产生非线性影响，但估计的灵敏度不足二次方。全美预期折现成本的平均估计约为

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《Climatic Change》 |1998年第4期|共26页
作者
Yohe GW.; Schlesinger ME.;
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正文语种 eng
中图分类气候学;
关键词
Abating climate-change; Oscillation; Impact; Policy;

机译：缓解气候变化;振荡;影响;政策;

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1. Sea-level change: The expected economic cost of protection or abandonmentin the United States [J] . Yohe GW., Schlesinger ME. Climatic Change . 1998,第4期

机译：海平面变化：在美国受到保护或放弃的预期经济成本
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Sea-level change: The expected economic cost of protection or abandonmentin the United States

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