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Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region

机译：巴伦支地区植被和生态系统功能的未来变化

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The dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) is used to project transient impacts of changes in climate on vegetation of the Barents Region. We incorporate additional plant functional types, i.e. shrubs and defined different types of open ground vegetation, to improve the representation of arctic vegetation in the global model. We use future climate projections as well as control climate data for 1981-2000 from a regional climate model (REMO) that assumes a development of atmospheric CO-concentration according to the B2-SRES scenario [IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The scientific basis. Contribution working group I to the Third assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2001)]. The model showed a generally good fit with observed data, both qualitatively when model outputs were compared to vegetation maps and quantitatively when compared with observations of biomass, NPP and LAI. The main discrepancy between the model output and observed vegetation is the overestimation of forest abundance for the northern parts of the Kola Peninsula that cannot be explained by climatic factors alone. Over the next hundred years, the model predicted an increase in boreal needle leaved evergreen forest, as extensions northwards and upwards in mountain areas, and as an increase in biomass, NPP and LAI. The model also projected that shade-intolerant broadleaved summergreen trees will be found further north and higher up in the mountain areas. Surprisingly, shrublands will decrease in extent as they are replaced by forest at their southern margins and restricted to areas high up in the mountains and to areas in northern Russia. Open ground vegetation will largely disappear in the Scandinavian mountains. Also counter-intuitively, tundra will increase in abundance due to the occupation of previously unvegetated areas in the northern part of the Barents Region. Spring greening will occur earlier and LAI will increase. Consequently, albedo will decrease both in summer and winter time, particularly in the Scandinavian mountains (by up to 18%). Although this positive feedback to climate could be offset to some extent by increased CO drawdown from vegetation, increasing soil respiration results in NEE close to zero, so we cannot conclude to what extent or whether the Barents Region will become a source or a sink of CO.
机译：动态植被模型（LPJ-GUESS）用于预测气候变化对巴伦支地区植被的短暂影响。我们合并了其他植物功能类型（即灌木）并定义了不同类型的裸露植被，以改善整体模型中北极植被的表示形式。我们根据区域气候模型（REMO）使用未来的气候预测以及1981-2000年的控制气候数据，该模型根据B2-SRES情景假设了大气中CO浓度的发展[IPCC，Climate Change 2001：科学依据。第一小组对气专委第三次评估报告的贡献。剑桥大学出版社，剑桥（2001）]。该模型显示出与观测数据的总体拟合度，从模型输出结果与植被图的比较定性分析，以及与生物量，NPP和LAI的观测结果比较的定量分析。模型输出与观测到的植被之间的主要差异是对高拉半岛北部森林丰度的高估，这不能仅凭气候因素来解释。在接下来的一百年里，该模型预测了针叶阔叶常绿森林的增加，山区向北和向上的扩展以及生物量，NPP和LAI的增加。该模型还预测，在山区的北部和更高处将发现不耐荫的阔叶夏绿树。出人意料的是，灌木丛的范围将减少，因为它们在南部边缘被森林所取代，并且仅限于高山地区和俄罗斯北部地区。斯堪的纳维亚山区的露天植被将在很大程度上消失。同样违反直觉的是，由于对巴伦支地区北部以前无植被的地区的占领，冻原的丰度将增加。春季绿化将更早发生，LAI将增加。因此，反照率在夏季和冬季都会减少，特别是在斯堪的纳维亚山区（最多减少18％）。尽管对气候的积极反馈可以通过增加植被对二氧化碳的吸收而在一定程度上被抵消，但是土壤呼吸的增加使NEE接近于零，因此我们无法断定巴伦支地区将在多大程度上或是否会成为二氧化碳的源或汇。

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