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An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai

机译：评估气候变化对孟买洪水风险的潜在影响

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Managing risks from extreme events will be a crucial component of climate change adaptation. In this study, we demonstrate an approach to assess future risks and quantify the benefits of adaptation options at a city-scale, with application to flood risk in Mumbai. In 2005, Mumbai experienced unprecedented flooding, causing direct economic damages estimated at almost two billion USD and 500 fatalities. Our findings suggest that by the 2080s, in a SRES A2 scenario, an 'upper bound' climate scenario could see the likelihood of a 2005-like event more than double. We estimate that total losses (direct plus indirect) associated with a 1-in-100year event could triple compared with current situation (to 690 Unknown character Unknown character Unknown character 1,890 million USD), due to climate change alone. Continued rapid urbanisation could further increase the risk level. The analysis also demonstrates that adaptation could significantly reduce future losses; for example, estimates suggest that by improving the drainage system in Mumbai, losses associated with a 1-in-100year flood event today could be reduced by as much as 70%.,We show that assessing the indirect costs of extreme events is an important component of an adaptation assessment, both in ensuring the analysis captures the full economic benefits of adaptation and also identifying options that can help to manage indirect risks of disasters. For example, we show that by extending insurance to 100% penetration, the indirect effects of flooding could be almost halved. We conclude that, while this study explores only the upper-bound climate scenario, the risk-assessment core demonstrated in this study could form an important quantitative tool in developing city-scale adaptation strategies. We provide a discussion of sources of uncertainty and risk-based tools could be linked with decision-making approaches to inform adaptation plans that are robust to climate change.
机译：管理来自极端事件的风险将是适应气候变化的关键组成部分。在这项研究中，我们展示了一种评估未来风险并量化城市范围内适应方案的收益的方法，并将其应用于孟买的洪水风险。 2005年，孟买遭遇了前所未有的洪水，造成直接经济损失，估计近20亿美元，并造成500人死亡。我们的发现表明，到2080年代，在SRES A2情景中，“上限”气候情景可能会看到类似2005年事件的可能性增加一倍以上。我们估计，与100％的事件相关的总损失（直接和间接）可能比当前情况增加三倍（至690个未知字符未知字符18.90亿美元），这仅是由于气候变化造成的。持续的快速城市化可能会进一步增加风险水平。分析还表明，适应可以大大减少未来的损失;例如，估计表明，通过改善孟买的排水系统，今天与100年一遇洪水事件相关的损失可以减少多达70％。我们表明，评估极端事件的间接成本是重要的适应性评估的一个组成部分，既要确保分析获得适应性的全部经济利益，又要确定有助于管理灾害间接风险的备选方案。例如，我们表明，通过将保险扩大到100％的渗透率，洪水的间接影响几乎可以减半。我们得出的结论是，尽管本研究仅探讨了上限气候情景，但本研究中展示的风险评估核心可能会成为制定城市规模适应策略的重要量化工具。我们提供了不确定性来源的讨论，基于风险的工具可以与决策方法联系起来，为应对气候变化的适应计划提供信息。

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