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Managing uncertainty in climate change projections - Issues for impactassessment - An editorial comment

机译：管理气候变化预测中的不确定性-影响评估的问题-社论评论

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Climate change projection is the term the IPCC Second Assessment Report (SAR) uses for model estimates of future climate. In that report, projections are presented in two forms: as single model scenarios and as projected ranges of uncertainty. In climate studies, scenarios are commonly regarded as being plausible, but have no further probability attached. Projected ranges of uncertainty can have probabilities attached to the range and within the range, so are more likely to occur than individual scenarios. However, as there is significant remaining uncertainty beyond the projected range, such projections cannot be regarded as forecasts. An appropriate terminology is required to communicate this distinction. The sources of uncertainty in projected ranges of global temperature to 2100 are analysed by Visser et al. (2000), who recommend that ail major sources of uncertainty be incorporated into global warming projections. This will expand its projected range beyond that of the IPCC SAR. Further sources of uncertainties are contained within projections of regional climate. Several strategies that aim to manage that uncertainty are described. Uncertainty can also be managed where it is unquantifiable. An example is rapid climate change, where discarding the term climate 'surprises' in favour of more precise terminology to aid in identifying possible adaptation strategies, is recommended.
机译：气候变化预测是IPCC第二次评估报告（SAR）用于未来气候模型估计的术语。在该报告中，预测以两种形式表示：作为单个模型场景和作为不确定性的预测范围。在气候研究中，情景通常被认为是合理的，但没有进一步的可能性。不确定性的预计范围可能具有与该范围相关联的概率，并且在该范围内，因此比个别情况更可能发生。但是，由于仍有很大的不确定性超出了预期范围，因此不能将此类预测视为预测。需要适当的术语来传达这种区别。 Visser等人分析了预计到2100年的全球温度范围内的不确定性来源。 （2000年），他建议将所有主要不确定性因素纳入全球变暖预测中。这将使其预测范围超出IPCC SAR的范围。不确定性的其他来源包含在区域气候预测中。描述了旨在解决这种不确定性的几种策略。不确定性也可以在无法量化的地方进行管理。一个快速变化的例子就是气候变化，建议抛弃气候“惊奇”一词，转而使用更精确的术语来帮助确定可能的适应策略。

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