General circulation models (GCMs) project increases in the earth's surface air temperatures and other climate changes by the mid or late 21st century, and therefore crops such as cotton (Gossypium spp L.) will be grown in a much different environment than today. To understand the implications of climate change on cotton production in India, cotton production to the different scenarios (A2, B2 and A1B) of future climate was simulated using the simulation model Infocrop-cotton. The GCM projections showed a nearly 3.95, 3.20 and 1.85 A degrees C rise in mean temperature of cotton growing regions of India for the A2, B2 and A1B scenarios, respectively. Simulation results using the Infocrop-cotton model indicated that seed cotton yield declined by 477 kg ha(-1) for the A2 scenario and by 268 kg ha(-1) for the B2 scenario; while it was non-significant for the A1B scenario. However, it became non-significant under elevated [CO2] levels across all the scenarios. The yield decline was higher in the northern zone over the southern zone. The impact of climate change on rainfed cotton which covers more than 60 % of the country's total cotton production area (mostly in the central zone) and is dependent on the monsoons is likely to be minimum, possibly on account of marginal increase in rainfall levels. Results of this assessment suggest that productivity in northern India may marginally decline; while in central and southern India, productivity may either remain the same or increase. At the national level, therefore, cotton production is unlikely to change with climate change. Adaptive measures such as changes in planting time and more responsive cultivars may further boost cotton production in India.
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机译：通用循环模型（GCM）预测，到21世纪中叶或晚期，地球的地表气温和其他气候变化都会增加，因此，棉花（Gossypium spp L.）等农作物的生长环境将与今天截然不同。为了了解气候变化对印度棉花生产的影响，使用模拟模型Infocrop-cotton对未来气候的不同情景（A2，B2和A1B）中的棉花生产进行了模拟。 GCM预测显示，对于A2，B2和A1B情景，印度棉花种植区的平均温度分别升高了近3.95、3.20和1.85A。使用Infocrop-cotton模型进行的模拟结果表明，A2情景下的籽棉产量下降了477 kg ha（-1），B2情景下的籽棉产量下降了268 kg ha（-1）。而对于A1B场景而言则不重要。但是，在所有情况下，在升高的[CO2]水平下，它都变得不重要。北部地区的产量下降高于南部地区。气候变化对雨养棉花的影响可能很小，这可能是最小的，而雨养棉花占该国棉花总产区的60％以上（主要在中部地区），并且依赖季风。评估结果表明，印度北部的生产率可能会略有下降;而在印度中部和南部，生产力可能保持不变或增加。因此，在国家一级，棉花产量不可能随气候变化而变化。适应性措施，例如播种时间的变化和更敏感的栽培品种，可能会进一步提高印度的棉花产量。
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