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Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century

机译：调查二十一世纪温度变化的速度及其影响

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Most climatological studies characterize the future climate change as the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future. However, as climate continues to change, ecosystems and societies will need to continuously adapt to a moving target. Here, we consider indicators of the pace of temperature change estimated from CMIP5 projections of an ensemble of climate models. We define the pace as a difference in relevant metrics between two successive 20-year periods, i.e. with a continually moving baseline. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP8.5), the warming rate strongly increases, and peaks before 2080. All latitudes experience at least a doubling in the warming rate compared to the current period. Significant shifts in temperature distributions above twice the standard deviation between two successive 20-year periods expand from 9 % of continents on average currently to 41 % by 2060 onwards. In these regions, a warm year with a return period of about 50 years would become quite common 20 years later. The fraction of the world population exposed to such shifts will grow from 8 % to about 60 % on average, i.e. 6 billion people. Tropical areas are strongly affected, especially West Africa and South-East Asia. Low mitigation (RCP6.0) limits the warming rate to current values. Medium mitigation (RCP4.5) even reduces population exposure to significant shifts in temperature distributions to negligible values by the end of the century. Strong mitigation (RCP2.6) is the only option that generates a return to values similar to the historical period for all our indicators related to the pace of temperature change. This alternative way to analyze climate projections can yield new insights for the climate impacts and adaptation communities.
机译：大多数气候学研究将未来的气候变化描述为当前固定基线和未来之间的演变。但是，随着气候的不断变化，生态系统和社会将需要不断适应不断变化的目标。在这里，我们考虑根据气候模型整体的CMIP5预测估算的温度变化速度指标。我们将速度定义为连续两个20年周期（即基线不断变化）之间相关指标之间的差异。在最强的排放途径（RCP8.5）下，变暖速率急剧增加，并在2080年之前达到峰值。与当前时期相比，所有纬度的变暖速率至少翻了一番。在连续两个20年周期之间，温度分布的显着变化超过了标准偏差的两倍，到2060年之前，这一变化将从目前平均的9％扩大到41％。在这些地区，回归期约为50年的温暖年份将在20年后变得十分普遍。受到这种转变的世界人口比例将平均从8％增长到60％，即60亿。热带地区受到严重影响，特别是西非和东南亚。低缓解（RCP6.0）将升温速率限制为当前值。到本世纪末，中等程度的缓解（RCP4.5）甚至可以使人口暴露于温度分布的明显变化而使其值可忽略不计。对于我们所有与温度变化速度有关的指标，强烈缓解（RCP2.6）是唯一能够使收益返回类似于历史时期的值的选项。这种分析气候预测的替代方法可以为气候影响和适应社区提供新的见解。

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