Reasoning about climate uncertainty

Curry Judith .

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Reasoning about climate uncertainty

机译：关于气候不确定性的推理

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This paper argues that the IPCC has oversimplified the issue of uncertainty in its Assessment Reports, which can lead to misleading overconfidence. A concerted effort by the IPCC is needed to identify better ways of framing the climate change problem, explore and characterize uncertainty, reason about uncertainty in the context of evidence-based logical hierarchies, and eliminate bias from the consensus building process itself.

机译：本文认为IPCC在其评估报告中过分简化了不确定性问题，这可能导致误导性的过度自信。 IPCC需要作出协调一致的努力，以找到更好的方法来解决气候变化问题，探索和表征不确定性，在基于证据的逻辑层次结构中确定不确定性的原因以及消除共识构建过程本身的偏见。

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《Climatic Change》 |2011年第4期|共10页
作者
Curry Judith .;
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原文格式 PDF
正文语种 eng
中图分类大气科学（气象学）;
关键词
carbon dioxide: 124-38-9; fuel; policy maker; policy process; climate uncertainty; consensus building process; climate change problem; Assessment Report; misleading overconfidence; evidence-based logical hierarchy;

机译：二氧化碳：124-38-9;燃料;政策制定者;政策过程;气候不确定性;共识建立过程;气候变化问题;评估报告;误导性的过度自信;基于证据的逻辑层次结构;

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1. Reasoning about climate uncertainty [J] . Curry Judith . Climatic Change . 2011,第4期

机译：关于气候不确定性的推理
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3. Assessment of extreme flows and uncertainty under climate change: disentangling the uncertainty contribution of representative concentration pathways, global climate models and internal climate variability [J] . Chao Gao, Martijn J. Booij, Yue-Ping Xu Hydrology and Earth System Sciences . 2020,第6期

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5. On the uncertainties and dynamics of Pacific interannual and decadal climate variability and climate change . [D] . Furtado, Jason C. 2010

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6. Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates [O] . A.J Challinor, T.R Wheeler, J.M Slingo, 2005

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7. Reasoning about climate uncertainty [O] . Judith Curry 2011

机译：关于气候不确定性的推理

Reasoning about climate uncertainty

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